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Forecast

Gwelup (31.8701°S, 115.7924°E, 23m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Possible thunderstorm 13° 21°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:49am WST 7:16am WST 5:30pm WST 5:56pm WST
    NOW
    12.0° Feels Like: 10.4°
    Relative Humidity: 59%
    Dew: 4.2°
    Wind: N 2km/h
    Gust: 6km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1014.8hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Gwelup
    Now
    17.3°c
    Feels Like:
    13.7°
    Wind:
    N 15km/h
    Gusts:
    22km/h
    Humidity:
    51%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    13°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Gwelup
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming NW 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.
    Tomorrow
    Possible thunderstorm
    13°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely in the early morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early morning. Winds NW 25 to 40 km/h tending W 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming NW 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.

    Forecast for Gwelup (31.8701°S, 115.7924°E, 23m AMSL)
      Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Possible thunderstorm Possible shower Heavy rain Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 13° 12° 11° 12° 13° 10°
    Maximum 21° 18° 19° 21° 18° 17° 17°
    Chance of rain 80% 30% 50% 80% 80% 60% 5%
    Likely amount 10-20mm < 1mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 13
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N NW W W NNE N NNE NNW WSW SW NE SW ENE ESE
    Relative humidity 84% 78% 69% 60% 79% 73% 82% 78% 73% 71% 79% 68% 85% 61%
    Dew point 14°C 16°C 9°C 9°C 10°C 13°C 13°C 16°C 11°C 10°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 9°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Gwelup Rain Forecast


    Gwelup 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    HIGH
    17
    HIGH
    18
    HIGH
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 14 August to 18 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 August to 8 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 13 August to 17 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 14 August to 18 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Gwelup Rain Forecast


    Gwelup 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    2
    6
    6
    5
    7
    6
    8
    7
    5
    4
    3
    1
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Gwelup Rain Forecast


    Gwelup 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    HIGH
    17
    HIGH
    18
    HIGH
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 14 August to 18 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 August to 8 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 13 August to 17 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 14 August to 18 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Gwelup Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Wednesday
    Jul 08
    10.7 °C 17.1 °C
    4.6 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 09
    6.0 °C 17.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Jul 10
    4.8 °C 16.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Jul 11
    4.8 °C 17.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 12
    7.3 °C 22.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Gwelup minimum temp history (31.8701°S, 115.7924°E, 23m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 23.1° 05/07/2020 Coldest this month 4.3° 02/07/2020
    Hottest on record 25.8 21/07/1994 Coldest on record 0.0 15/07/1997
    Hottest this year 42.7° 04/02/2020 Coldest this year 3.4° 20/06/2020
    Long term average 18.4° Long term average 7.7°
    Average this month 18.6° Average this month 8.9°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.5° 2007 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 4.4° 1997
    Gwelup rainfall history (31.8701°S, 115.7924°E, 23m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 6.8mm 06/07/2020 Total This Month 20.6mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 144.5mm 17.0 days Wettest July on record 278.6mm 1995
    Driest on record 34.6mm 2012
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for WA

  16. Year to Date

    Gwelup Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 447.8mm 59.9 day(s)
    Total For 2020 331.0mm 56.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 354.4mm 46.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 38.2mm Jun29
    Lowest Temperature 3.4°C Jun20
    Highest Temperature 42.7°C Feb 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Gwelup Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.2 31.6 29.6 25.9 22.3 19.4 18.4 19.1 20.3 23.4 26.6 29.1 24.8
    Mean Min (°C) 18.1 18.3 16.6 13.8 10.5 8.6 7.7 8.3 9.5 11.5 14.3 16.3 12.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 16.7 13.6 20.4 36.3 90.3 126.0 144.5 122.4 87.2 38.6 23.3 10.1 727.1
    Mean Rain Days 2.8 2.3 4.6 6.8 11.5 14.9 17.0 15.8 14.8 8.9 5.8 3.6 105.0