Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Great Southern, Lower West (including Perth), Ravensthorpe Shire, Ashburton Inland, Gascoyne Inland, Goldfields, Eucla, Inland Central West - South, Nelson, Esperance Shire Inland, Mortlock, Avon and Jilbadgie fire weather districts
Issued at 03:53 PM WST on Saturday 14 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot and dry. Moderate east to northeast winds across the South West Land Division in the morning. Moderate to fresh afternoon seabreezes across the South West Land Division and Gascoyne coasts and adjacent inland areas. Moderate northerly winds through the Goldfields and Eucla.
For Sunday 15 December:
Extreme Fire Danger for the following areas:
Lower West Inland
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Great Southern, Ravensthorpe Shire, Ashburton Inland, Gascoyne Inland, Goldfields, Eucla, Inland Central West - South, Lower West Coast, Nelson, Esperance Shire Inland, Mortlock, Avon and Jilbadgie
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am WST Sunday.
Forecast
Eucla (31.7027°S, 128.835°E, 10m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW16° 37° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 3:45am 4:13am 6:25pm 6:54pm NOW16.1° Feels Like: 13.0° Relative Humidity: 68% Dew: 10.2° Wind: NNE 17km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.1hPa -
Today Weather
EuclaNow20.7°cFeels Like:15.6°Wind:E 17km/hGusts:18km/hHumidity:27%16°Min37°MaxToday in EuclaVery hot and sunny. Winds NE 15 to 20 km/h tending N 15 to 25 km/h early in the morning then turning E/NE in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 40s.Tomorrow16°Min37°MaxVery hot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the west, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E/NE 20 to 25 km/h tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to 22 to 27 with daytime temperatures reaching around 40. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Very hot and sunny. Winds NE 15 to 20 km/h tending N 15 to 25 km/h early in the morning then turning E/NE in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 40s.
Forecast for Eucla (31.7027°S, 128.835°E, 10m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 16° 22° 22° 21° 21° 18° 16° Maximum 37° 39° 38° 33° 40° 27° 24° Chance of rain 5% 30% 30% 5% 60% 70% 70% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed -
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28 Day Rainfall forecast
Eucla Rain Forecast
Eucla 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
LOW17
LOW18
19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
LOW25
MEDIUM26
LOW27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Eucla Rain Forecast
Eucla 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020578866789677105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Eucla Rain Forecast
Eucla 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
LOW17
LOW18
19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
LOW25
MEDIUM26
LOW27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
Eucla Observations History
We're sorry, but there are no daily observations available for Eucla
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Past 5 Days
Eucla Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Dec 1015.5 °C 22.2 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1115.6 °C 21.9 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1216.3 °C 22.7 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 1314.6 °C 27.3 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 1412.4 °C 29 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Eucla minimum temp history (31.7027°S, 128.835°E, 10m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 40.9° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.0° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 47.4 27/12/2013 Coldest on record 6.9 09/12/2009 Hottest this year 48.6° 23/01/2019 Coldest this year 1.1° 20/08/2019 Long term average 25.7° Long term average 15.1° Average this month 27.5° Average this month 15.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.2° 1972 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 12.5° 1959 Eucla rainfall history (31.7027°S, 128.835°E, 10m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.4mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 0.8mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 21.2mm 4.7 days Wettest December on record 148.9mm 1972 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Eucla Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 281.5mm 92.3 day(s) Total For 2019 118.8mm 84.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 390.2mm 133.0 day(s) Wettest Day 17.6mm May 2 Lowest Temperature 1.1°C Aug20 Highest Temperature 48.6°C Jan23 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Eucla Climatology
Eucla Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.0 21.2 18.8 18.1 19.4 21.8 23.9 25.0 25.7 23.0 Mean Min (°C) 16.7 17.1 15.8 13.4 10.7 8.3 7.1 7.5 9.3 11.4 13.5 15.1 12.2 Mean Rain (mm) 14.1 20.3 23.1 25.0 31.8 31.1 25.8 27.1 23.4 19.5 19.1 21.2 281.5 Mean Rain Days 3.8 4.8 6.6 8.0 10.9 11.2 10.9 10.5 8.6 6.7 5.6 4.7 82.6