Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, Geographe, Capes and Brockman fire weather districts
Issued at 03:13 AM WST on Tuesday 19 March 2024
Weather Situation
Fresh and gusty southeasterly winds combined with dry conditions are resulting in extreme fire dangers.
For the rest of Tuesday 19 March:
Extreme Fire Danger for the following areas:
Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, Geographe, Capes and Brockman
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.emergency.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Embleton (31.8968°S, 115.9166°E, 25m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW15° 29° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:56am WST 6:20am WST 6:27pm WST 6:52pm WST NOW21.0° Feels Like: 17.3° Relative Humidity: 35% Dew: 5.0° Wind: NE 13km/h Gust: 24km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1023.1hPa -
Today Weather
EmbletonNow21.0°cFeels Like:12.6°Wind:E 37km/hGusts:43km/hHumidity:34%15°Min29°MaxToday in EmbletonSunny. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Wind gusts up to 75 km/h over the hills and foot hills in the morning.Tomorrow15°Min29°MaxSunny. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Wind gusts up to 75 km/h over the hills and foot hills in the morning.
Forecast for Embleton (31.8968°S, 115.9166°E, 25m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 15° 18° 17° 16° 16° 16° 18° Maximum 29° 31° 30° 29° 30° 30° 32° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating High High High High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 33
(km/h)22
(km/h)25
(km/h)18
(km/h)32
(km/h)28
(km/h)29
(km/h)26
(km/h)25
(km/h)19
(km/h)21
(km/h)18
(km/h)19
(km/h)17
(km/h)Wind direction E E ENE S E ESE E ESE E ESE ENE S ENE WSW Relative humidity 45% 28% 45% 35% 51% 31% 53% 31% 54% 31% 40% 27% 36% 27% Dew point 7°C 8°C 10°C 13°C 11°C 10°C 10°C 9°C 11°C 10°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Embleton Rain Forecast
Embleton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Embleton Rain Forecast
Embleton 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025845445627817105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Embleton Rain Forecast
Embleton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Embleton Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1521.0 °C 32.2 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1621.2 °C 33.5 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1716.2 °C 28.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1817.6 °C 27.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1914.7 °C 26.7 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Embleton minimum temp history (31.8968°S, 115.9166°E, 25m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.0° 07/03/2024 Coldest this month 14.1° 09/03/2024 Hottest on record 42.4 07/03/2007 Coldest on record 6.3 27/03/2007 Hottest this year 42.9° 18/02/2024 Coldest this year 14.1° 09/03/2024 Long term average 29.6° Long term average 16.8° Average this month 30.5° Average this month 19.1° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.9° 2011 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 15.1° 2009 Embleton rainfall history (31.8968°S, 115.9166°E, 25m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.2mm 09/03/2024 Total This Month 1.6mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 20.6mm 4.7 days Wettest March on record 69.6mm 2013 Driest on record 0.0mm 2011 -
Year to Date
Embleton Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 50.7mm 9.6 day(s) Total For 2024 8.4mm 7.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 2.0mm 3.0 day(s) Wettest Day 3.4mm Feb26 Lowest Temperature 14.1°C Mar 9 Highest Temperature 42.9°C Feb18 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Embleton Climatology
Embleton Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.4 31.6 29.6 25.9 22.3 19.4 18.5 19.1 20.6 23.4 26.7 29.5 24.8 Mean Min (°C) 18.1 18.4 16.8 13.8 10.4 8.6 8.1 8.3 9.7 11.6 14.4 16.5 12.9 Mean Rain (mm) 16.7 13.4 20.6 37.0 86.5 127.3 146.3 122.2 80.6 38.6 24.7 9.5 722.3 Mean Rain Days 2.6 2.3 4.7 6.9 11.1 14.8 17.6 15.8 14.4 8.9 5.6 3.3 107.7