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Forecast

Elgin (33.4973°S, 115.6342°E, 23m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Clearing shower 16° 23°
    clearing shower
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:10am WST 5:38am WST 7:24pm WST 7:51pm WST
    NOW
    16.9° Feels Like: 15.2°
    Relative Humidity: 83%
    Dew: 14.1°
    Wind: SSW 15km/h
    Gust: 17km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Elgin
    Now
    15.5°c
    Feels Like:
    12.2°
    Wind:
    SSW 24km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    93%
    Clearing shower
     
    16°
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Today in Elgin
    Cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then turning S 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 23.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    10°
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming S/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 22.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Elgin

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then turning S 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 23.

    Forecast for Elgin (33.4973°S, 115.6342°E, 23m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Clearing shower Mostly sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 16° 10° 11° 13° 15° 17° 19°
    Maximum 23° 23° 28° 31° 33° 34° 35°
    Chance of rain 80% 20% 5% 5% 5% 20% 50%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 26
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SSW SSW SSW WSW SE SW ESE S ESE S E S ENE NNW
    Relative humidity 70% 50% 49% 46% 49% 40% 51% 31% 50% 32% 43% 30% 41% 46%
    Dew point 14°C 12°C 7°C 10°C 9°C 13°C 11°C 12°C 12°C 14°C 12°C 14°C 15°C 21°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Elgin Rain Forecast


    Elgin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    HIGH
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Elgin Rain Forecast


    Elgin 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    8
    6
    8
    6
    6
    6
    6
    4
    7
    4
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Elgin Rain Forecast


    Elgin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    HIGH
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Elgin Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jan 25
    14.9 °C 30.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 26
    16.8 °C 32.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jan 27
    16.2 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 28
    - 31.1 °C
    -
    Wednesday
    Jan 29
    14.6 °C 25 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Elgin minimum temp history (33.4973°S, 115.6342°E, 23m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 35.1° 14/01/2020 Coldest this month 5.3° 04/01/2020
    Hottest on record 40.8 11/01/2014 Coldest on record 6.0 26/01/2001
    Hottest this year 35.1° 14/01/2020 Coldest this year 5.3° 04/01/2020
    Long term average 29.8° Long term average 15.4°
    Average this month 29.2° Average this month 14.4°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.7° 2012 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 13.9° 2005
    Elgin rainfall history (33.4973°S, 115.6342°E, 23m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.2mm 03/01/2020 Total This Month 0.4mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 12.0mm 2.4 days Wettest January on record 64.4mm 2012
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for WA

  16. Year to Date

    Elgin Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 12.0mm 2.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 0.4mm 2.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 10.6mm 4.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 0.2mm Jan 3
    Lowest Temperature 5.3°C Jan 4
    Highest Temperature 35.1°C Jan14
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Elgin Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.8 30.1 27.7 24.2 21.0 18.4 17.2 17.6 18.5 21.1 24.5 27.2 23.2
    Mean Min (°C) 15.4 15.9 14.2 11.8 9.3 8.0 7.0 7.6 8.5 9.5 12.1 13.5 11.1
    Mean Rain (mm) 12.0 7.7 19.5 37.5 99.2 135.8 140.2 118.4 84.6 32.2 23.8 18.5 722.2
    Mean Rain Days 2.4 2.3 3.9 8.7 13.4 17.2 18.8 19.0 17.1 9.8 6.4 3.7 113.7