Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia
Minor Flood Warning For The Fitzroy River
Issued at 11:51 AM WST on Monday 18 March 2024
Flood Warning Number: 11
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY AT WILLARE DURING TUESDAY
MINOR FLOODING HAS EASED AT NOONKANBAH
Rainfall totals of up to 26 mm have been recorded in the Fitzroy River catchment in the 24 hours to 9 am Monday. Further showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the next few days.
Fitzroy River from Fitzroy Crossing to Noonkanbah:
Minor flooding is no longer occurring along the Fitzroy River downstream of Fitzroy Crossing to Noonkanbah.
The Fitzroy River at Noonkanbah is currently at 8.56 metres and falling, below the minor flood level.
The Fitzroy River at Noonkanbah is expected to remain below the minor flood level (9.50 m).
Fitzroy River from Noonkanbah to Willare:
Minor flooding is likely along the Fitzroy River from Noonkanbah to Willare.
The Fitzroy River at Willare is currently at 7.49 metres and rising, below the minor flood level.
The Fitzroy River at Willare is likely to reach the minor flood level (8.00 m) during Tuesday. The river level may peak near 8.40 metres during Wednesday.
Flood Safety Advice:
DFES advises people and communities to be aware that flooding is possible and be prepared to relocate equipment and livestock. Watch water levels. Travellers need to be aware that road conditions may be adversely affected and travel plans may need to be reconsidered. Do not drive into water of unknown depth and velocity.}
Community information is available from DFES at www.dfes.wa.gov.au
Current river levels are available from Department of Water and Environmental Regulation at www.water.wa.gov.au/maps-and-data/monitoring/river-level-monitoring
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 12:00 pm WST on Tuesday 19 March 2024.
Latest River Heights:
Hann River at Phillips Range,3.36,Rising,11:05 AM MON 18/03/24
Fitzroy River at Dimond Gorge,3.33,Steady,11:00 AM MON 18/03/24
Margaret River at Margaret River Gorge,1.36,Steady,11:05 AM MON 18/03/24
Leopold River at Mount Winifred,1.73,Rising,11:05 AM MON 18/03/24
Margaret River at Me No Savvy,1.33,Rising,11:05 AM MON 18/03/24
Margaret River at Mount Krauss,1.38,Steady,11:05 AM MON 18/03/24
Christmas Creek downstream of Homestead,0.39,Steady,11:00 AM MON 18/03/24
Fitzroy River at Noonkanbah,8.45,Falling,11:00 AM MON 18/03/24
Fitzroy River at Fitzroy Barrage,6.81,Falling,09:00 AM MON 18/03/24
Mount Wynne Creek at Ellendale,0.21,Steady,11:00 AM MON 18/03/24
Fitzroy River at Willare,7.49,Rising,11:00 AM MON 18/03/24
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts.
Forecast
Eighty Mile Beach (19.6408°S, 121.0221°E, 11m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY26° 36° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:38am WST 6:00am WST 6:08pm WST 6:30pm WST NOW34.4° Feels Like: 39.0° Relative Humidity: 54% Dew: 24.0° Wind: NE 6km/h Gust: 7km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1008.3hPa -
Today Weather
Eighty Mile BeachNow32.7°cFeels Like:36.9°Wind:NE 6km/hGusts:6km/hHumidity:57%26°Min36°MaxToday in Eighty Mile BeachPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending W/NW in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 33 to 40.Tomorrow26°Min41°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the N, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending SE/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to high 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 40. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending W/NW in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 33 to 40.
Forecast for Eighty Mile Beach (19.6408°S, 121.0221°E, 11m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 26° 26° 26° 27° 26° 25° 23° Maximum 36° 41° 40° 40° 38° 36° 36° Chance of rain 10% 30% 10% 20% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)23
(km/h)21
(km/h)16
(km/h)24
(km/h)19
(km/h)24
(km/h)18
(km/h)28
(km/h)30
(km/h)31
(km/h)25
(km/h)25
(km/h)23
(km/h)Wind direction W NNW SSE ENE ESE NE ESE ENE ESE SE SE SSE SE SSE Relative humidity 65% 59% 31% 29% 35% 39% 35% 32% 41% 29% 38% 31% 47% 34% Dew point 25°C 25°C 15°C 18°C 17°C 22°C 17°C 19°C 18°C 16°C 14°C 15°C 17°C 16°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Eighty Mile Beach Rain Forecast
Eighty Mile Beach 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Eighty Mile Beach Rain Forecast
Eighty Mile Beach 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb202420259678998911077105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Eighty Mile Beach Rain Forecast
Eighty Mile Beach 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Eighty Mile Beach Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1527.2 °C 36.4 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1627.2 °C 35.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1728.1 °C 35.8 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1825.6 °C 35.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1926.9 °C 34.7 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Eighty Mile Beach minimum temp history (19.6408°S, 121.0221°E, 11m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.4° 15/03/2024 Coldest this month 25.1° 07/03/2024 Hottest on record 45.6 08/03/1988 Coldest on record 14.5 26/03/1976 Hottest this year 46.0° 11/02/2024 Coldest this year 20.2° 08/02/2024 Long term average 36.9° Long term average 24.3° Average this month 35.2° Average this month 26.7° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 39.1° 1998 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 20.9° 1982 Eighty Mile Beach rainfall history (19.6408°S, 121.0221°E, 11m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 12.8mm 07/03/2024 Total This Month 26.2mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 80.2mm 4.5 days Wettest March on record 486.2mm 2000 Driest on record 0.0mm 2010 -
Year to Date
Eighty Mile Beach Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 276.2mm 17.3 day(s) Total For 2024 34.4mm 9.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 280.6mm 26.0 day(s) Wettest Day 12.8mm Mar 7 Lowest Temperature 20.2°C Feb 8 Highest Temperature 46.0°C Feb11 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Eighty Mile Beach Climatology
Eighty Mile Beach Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 35.9 35.7 36.9 36.2 32.2 29.1 29.1 31.0 33.9 35.9 36.4 36.6 34.1 Mean Min (°C) 25.5 25.1 24.3 20.9 16.9 14.2 12.5 13.2 15.7 19.1 22.0 24.6 19.3 Mean Rain (mm) 92.2 103.8 80.2 18.4 24.1 16.0 7.8 2.5 1.0 1.1 5.8 33.1 382.1 Mean Rain Days 6.4 6.4 4.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 2.5 26.7