Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia
Flood Warning For The Salt Lakes District Rivers
Issued at 10:31 AM WST on Monday 18 March 2024
Flood Warning Number: 7
FLOODING IMPACTS TO CONTINUE IN THE SALT LAKES DISTRICT
Significant rainfall earlier this month has resulted in localised flooding and road closures. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for the next few days which may prolong flood impacts.
Localised flooding is likely to continue to adversely affect road conditions, and the isolation of some communities is possible.
Salt Lakes District Rivers:
Flood impacts to continue within the Salt Lakes District.
Flood Safety Advice:
DFES advises people and communities to be aware that flooding is possible and be prepared to relocate equipment and livestock. Watch water levels. Travellers need to be aware that road conditions may be adversely affected and travel plans may need to be reconsidered. Do not drive into water of unknown depth and velocity.}
Community information is available from DFES at www.dfes.wa.gov.au
Current river levels are available from Department of Water and Environmental Regulation at www.water.wa.gov.au/maps-and-data/monitoring/river-level-monitoring
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am WST on Tuesday 19 March 2024.
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts.
Forecast
East Murchison (26.3369°S, 117.2665°E, 390m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY23° 29° windy with rain Chance of rain: 60% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:46am WST 6:09am WST 6:18pm WST 6:41pm WST NOW21.7° Feels Like: 19.6° Relative Humidity: 85% Dew: 19.1° Wind: SE 28km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1017.8hPa -
Today Weather
East MurchisonNow20.4°cFeels Like:16.6°Wind:SE 28km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:71%23°Min29°MaxToday in East MurchisonPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h turning E 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 38.Tomorrow17°Min26°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the NW in the morning and afternoon. Winds E 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 25 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 35. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h turning E 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 38.
Forecast for East Murchison (26.3369°S, 117.2665°E, 390m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 23° 17° 17° 18° 17° 16° 16° Maximum 29° 26° 31° 31° 29° 29° 31° Chance of rain 60% 20% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Very High Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating High High Moderate High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)31
(km/h)36
(km/h)29
(km/h)25
(km/h)20
(km/h)28
(km/h)26
(km/h)34
(km/h)33
(km/h)31
(km/h)24
(km/h)22
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction ESE ESE E E E ESE E ESE ESE ESE E ESE E ESE Relative humidity 88% 68% 70% 51% 51% 34% 48% 29% 49% 30% 49% 25% 44% 20% Dew point 20°C 21°C 14°C 14°C 10°C 13°C 11°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 6°C 8°C 5°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
East Murchison Rain Forecast
East Murchison 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
East Murchison Rain Forecast
East Murchison 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb202420259566678881088105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
East Murchison Rain Forecast
East Murchison 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
East Murchison Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1524.7 °C 30.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1624.3 °C 36.3 °C 0.4 mmSunday
Mar 1723.9 °C 39.1 °C 0.2 mmMonday
Mar 1825.8 °C 38.3 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1922.0 °C 23.0 °C 2.6 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
East Murchison minimum temp history (26.3369°S, 117.2665°E, 390m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.0° 02/03/2024 Coldest this month 16.1° 10/03/2024 Hottest on record 43.7 01/03/1985 Coldest on record 10.3 28/03/1968 Hottest this year 46.4° 22/01/2024 Coldest this year 16.1° 10/03/2024 Long term average 34.3° Long term average 21.5° Average this month 35.3° Average this month 23.7° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 38.6° 1980 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 18.5° 2001 East Murchison rainfall history (26.3369°S, 117.2665°E, 390m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 16.0mm 03/03/2024 Total This Month 21.6mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 30.8mm 4.4 days Wettest March on record 259.0mm 2000 Driest on record 0.0mm 2007 -
Year to Date
East Murchison Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 93.7mm 13.1 day(s) Total For 2024 80.0mm 14.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 38.2mm 11.0 day(s) Wettest Day 30.6mm Jan25 Lowest Temperature 16.1°C Mar10 Highest Temperature 46.4°C Jan22 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
East Murchison Climatology
East Murchison Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 38.4 36.9 34.3 29.3 23.9 19.8 19.3 21.7 25.9 30.0 33.4 36.7 29.1 Mean Min (°C) 24.5 23.8 21.5 17.1 12.1 8.8 7.5 8.7 11.6 15.4 18.9 22.3 16.0 Mean Rain (mm) 28.5 34.4 30.8 18.8 21.6 28.2 19.9 10.7 4.9 6.1 11.6 14.2 233.0 Mean Rain Days 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.0 4.3 5.8 5.2 3.6 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.0 45.0