Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia
Flood Warning For The Salt Lakes District Rivers
Issued at 10:35 AM WST on Tuesday 19 March 2024
Flood Warning Number: 8
FLOOD IMPACTS CONTINUING IN THE SALT LAKES DISTRICT
In the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday, up to 30 mm of rainfall has been recorded in the Salt Lakes district.
Significant rainfall earlier this month has resulted in localised flooding and road closures. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for the remainder of Tuesday and into Wednesday which may prolong flood impacts.
Localised flooding is likely to continue to adversely affect road conditions, and the isolation of some communities is possible.
Salt Lakes District Rivers:
Flood impacts to continue within the Salt Lakes District.
Flood Safety Advice:
DFES advises people and communities to be aware that flooding is possible and be prepared to relocate equipment and livestock. Watch water levels. Travellers need to be aware that road conditions may be adversely affected and travel plans may need to be reconsidered. Do not drive into water of unknown depth and velocity.}
Community information is available from DFES at www.dfes.wa.gov.au
Current river levels are available from Department of Water and Environmental Regulation at www.water.wa.gov.au/maps-and-data/monitoring/river-level-monitoring
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am WST on Wednesday 20 March 2024.
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts.
Forecast
East Lyons River (24.2278°S, 117.3758°E, 592m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW25° 36° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:50am WST 6:13am WST 6:20pm WST 6:42pm WST NOW27.3° Feels Like: 26.5° Relative Humidity: 60% Dew: 18.9° Wind: E 20km/h Gust: 30km/h Rainfall since 9am: 2.8mm Pressure: 1013.8hPa -
Today Weather
East Lyons RiverNow28.4°cFeels Like:24.9°Wind:SE 24km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:41%25°Min36°MaxToday in East Lyons RiverPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the N, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 25 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 34.Tomorrow25°Min36°MaxMostly sunny. Winds E 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 24 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 38. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the N, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 25 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 34.
Forecast for East Lyons River (24.2278°S, 117.3758°E, 592m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 25° 24° 26° 25° 22° 21° 21° Maximum 36° 38° 38° 37° 35° 34° 34° Chance of rain 5% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate High High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 33
(km/h)31
(km/h)26
(km/h)15
(km/h)24
(km/h)17
(km/h)31
(km/h)21
(km/h)29
(km/h)21
(km/h)23
(km/h)22
(km/h)20
(km/h)21
(km/h)Wind direction E ESE E SE E SSE E SE E SE ESE SSE E SSE Relative humidity 44% 26% 34% 20% 27% 18% 27% 15% 27% 12% 31% 17% 39% 16% Dew point 15°C 13°C 12°C 11°C 10°C 9°C 8°C 6°C 6°C 1°C 8°C 5°C 11°C 4°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
East Lyons River Rain Forecast
East Lyons River 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
East Lyons River Rain Forecast
East Lyons River 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb202420259566678881088105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
East Lyons River Rain Forecast
East Lyons River 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
East Lyons River Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1523.9 °C 35.7 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1624.8 °C 37.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1726.6 °C 35.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1822.4 °C 35.7 °C -Tuesday
Mar 1926.5 °C 37.0 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
East Lyons River minimum temp history (24.2278°S, 117.3758°E, 592m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.3° 01/03/2024 Coldest this month 21.8° 07/03/2024 Hottest on record 43.3 04/03/2007 Coldest on record 9.0 26/03/2001 Hottest this year 46.2° 20/01/2024 Coldest this year 20.4° 27/01/2024 Long term average 35.7° Long term average 22.3° Average this month 35.5° Average this month 25.1° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 38.8° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 18.5° 2001 East Lyons River rainfall history (24.2278°S, 117.3758°E, 592m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 77.2mm 06/03/2024 Total This Month 102.0mm
9.0 daysLong Term Average 41.6mm 4.7 days Wettest March on record 214.2mm 1979 Driest on record 0.0mm 1996 -
Year to Date
East Lyons River Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 186.3mm 18.7 day(s) Total For 2024 291.0mm 18.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 81.4mm 18.0 day(s) Wettest Day 128.8mm Jan24 Lowest Temperature 20.4°C Jan27 Highest Temperature 46.2°C Jan20 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
East Lyons River Climatology
East Lyons River Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 39.1 37.4 35.7 32.1 27.0 23.0 23.2 26.3 30.6 35.2 37.4 39.5 32.2 Mean Min (°C) 25.2 24.1 22.3 17.7 11.9 7.6 6.5 8.2 12.4 17.7 21.1 24.3 16.5 Mean Rain (mm) 70.2 74.5 41.6 22.1 19.0 16.3 13.8 6.3 4.7 5.8 12.2 35.0 316.8 Mean Rain Days 6.9 7.1 4.7 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.4 1.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 5.0 41.5