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Forecast

East Carnarvon (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible shower 25° 35°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:06am WST 6:29am WST 6:37pm WST 7:00pm WST
    NOW
    32.1° Feels Like: 32.1°
    Relative Humidity: 60%
    Dew: 23.6°
    Wind: S 28km/h
    Gust: 35km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1006.9hPa
  3. Today Weather

    East Carnarvon
    Now
    36.7°c
    Feels Like:
    32.7°
    Wind:
    SE 32km/h
    Gusts:
    37km/h
    Humidity:
    30%
    Possible shower
     
    25°
    Min
    35°
    Max
    Today in East Carnarvon
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h turning E 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 38.
    Tomorrow
    Clearing shower
    26°
    Min
    33°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the NW in the morning and afternoon. Winds E 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 25 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 35.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h turning E 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 38.

    Forecast for East Carnarvon (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Possible shower Clearing shower Mostly cloudy Mostly sunny Windy Sunny Sunny
    Minimum 25° 26° 26° 27° 27° 25° 25°
    Maximum 35° 33° 35° 37° 37° 36° 35°
    Chance of rain 70% 50% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Very High Very High Very High
    Fire Danger Rating High High High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 22
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SE SSE E E ESE SSE ESE S ESE SSE E S E SSW
    Relative humidity 47% 53% 65% 60% 54% 49% 46% 47% 41% 39% 38% 37% 36% 38%
    Dew point 19°C 24°C 22°C 23°C 20°C 22°C 18°C 23°C 16°C 20°C 14°C 18°C 13°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    East Carnarvon Rain Forecast


    East Carnarvon 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    East Carnarvon Rain Forecast


    East Carnarvon 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2024
    2025
    9
    5
    6
    6
    6
    7
    8
    8
    8
    10
    8
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Mar 5

    ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    East Carnarvon Rain Forecast


    East Carnarvon 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    East Carnarvon Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Mar 15
    26.6 °C 38.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 16
    28.9 °C 42.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 17
    27.7 °C 37.8 °C
    0.8 mm
    Monday
    Mar 18
    25.8 °C 31.7 °C
    0.6 mm
    Tuesday
    Mar 19
    25.3 °C 38.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    East Carnarvon minimum temp history (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 42.2° 16/03/2024 Coldest this month 22.7° 05/03/2024
    Hottest on record 47.8 06/03/2007 Coldest on record 13.2 29/03/2007
    Hottest this year 49.9° 18/02/2024 Coldest this year 20.5° 19/02/2024
    Long term average 31.7° Long term average 22.2°
    Average this month 34.5° Average this month 24.9°
    Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.8° 1988 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 20.1° 1968
    East Carnarvon rainfall history (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 2.4mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 3.8mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 15.8mm 2.2 days Wettest March on record 206.0mm 2000
    Driest on record 0.0mm 2018
  15. Year to Date

    East Carnarvon Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 47.7mm 6.6 day(s)
    Total For 2024 83.8mm 9.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2023 4.6mm 2.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 78.4mm Feb25
    Lowest Temperature 20.5°C Feb19
    Highest Temperature 49.9°C Feb18
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    East Carnarvon Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.4 32.5 31.7 29.2 26.4 23.5 22.5 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.7 29.5 27.4
    Mean Min (°C) 22.6 23.4 22.2 19.1 14.8 12.2 10.9 11.6 13.9 16.5 18.7 20.8 17.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 11.1 20.8 15.8 15.7 33.1 45.6 41.7 16.9 6.4 4.9 3.7 5.1 220.4
    Mean Rain Days 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.8 5.3 7.9 7.7 5.5 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.7 43.0