Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia
Flood Warning For The Salt Lakes District Rivers
Issued at 10:35 AM WST on Tuesday 19 March 2024
Flood Warning Number: 8
FLOOD IMPACTS CONTINUING IN THE SALT LAKES DISTRICT
In the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday, up to 30 mm of rainfall has been recorded in the Salt Lakes district.
Significant rainfall earlier this month has resulted in localised flooding and road closures. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for the remainder of Tuesday and into Wednesday which may prolong flood impacts.
Localised flooding is likely to continue to adversely affect road conditions, and the isolation of some communities is possible.
Salt Lakes District Rivers:
Flood impacts to continue within the Salt Lakes District.
Flood Safety Advice:
DFES advises people and communities to be aware that flooding is possible and be prepared to relocate equipment and livestock. Watch water levels. Travellers need to be aware that road conditions may be adversely affected and travel plans may need to be reconsidered. Do not drive into water of unknown depth and velocity.}
Community information is available from DFES at www.dfes.wa.gov.au
Current river levels are available from Department of Water and Environmental Regulation at www.water.wa.gov.au/maps-and-data/monitoring/river-level-monitoring
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am WST on Wednesday 20 March 2024.
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts.
Forecast
East Carnarvon (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY25° 35° possible shower Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:06am WST 6:29am WST 6:37pm WST 7:00pm WST NOW32.1° Feels Like: 32.1° Relative Humidity: 60% Dew: 23.6° Wind: S 28km/h Gust: 35km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1006.9hPa -
Today Weather
East CarnarvonNow36.7°cFeels Like:32.7°Wind:SE 32km/hGusts:37km/hHumidity:30%25°Min35°MaxToday in East CarnarvonPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h turning E 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 38.Tomorrow26°Min33°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the NW in the morning and afternoon. Winds E 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 25 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 35. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h turning E 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 38.
Forecast for East Carnarvon (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 25° 26° 26° 27° 27° 25° 25° Maximum 35° 33° 35° 37° 37° 36° 35° Chance of rain 70% 50% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating High High High High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 22
(km/h)23
(km/h)30
(km/h)28
(km/h)25
(km/h)22
(km/h)25
(km/h)22
(km/h)36
(km/h)23
(km/h)33
(km/h)20
(km/h)25
(km/h)21
(km/h)Wind direction SE SSE E E ESE SSE ESE S ESE SSE E S E SSW Relative humidity 47% 53% 65% 60% 54% 49% 46% 47% 41% 39% 38% 37% 36% 38% Dew point 19°C 24°C 22°C 23°C 20°C 22°C 18°C 23°C 16°C 20°C 14°C 18°C 13°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
East Carnarvon Rain Forecast
East Carnarvon 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
East Carnarvon Rain Forecast
East Carnarvon 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb202420259566678881088105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Long range rainfall forecast
East Carnarvon Rain Forecast
East Carnarvon 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Past 5 Days
East Carnarvon Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1526.6 °C 38.2 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1628.9 °C 42.2 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1727.7 °C 37.8 °C 0.8 mmMonday
Mar 1825.8 °C 31.7 °C 0.6 mmTuesday
Mar 1925.3 °C 38.7 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
East Carnarvon minimum temp history (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.2° 16/03/2024 Coldest this month 22.7° 05/03/2024 Hottest on record 47.8 06/03/2007 Coldest on record 13.2 29/03/2007 Hottest this year 49.9° 18/02/2024 Coldest this year 20.5° 19/02/2024 Long term average 31.7° Long term average 22.2° Average this month 34.5° Average this month 24.9° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.8° 1988 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 20.1° 1968 East Carnarvon rainfall history (24.8693°S, 113.6782°E, 3m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.4mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 3.8mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 15.8mm 2.2 days Wettest March on record 206.0mm 2000 Driest on record 0.0mm 2018 -
Year to Date
East Carnarvon Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 47.7mm 6.6 day(s) Total For 2024 83.8mm 9.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 4.6mm 2.0 day(s) Wettest Day 78.4mm Feb25 Lowest Temperature 20.5°C Feb19 Highest Temperature 49.9°C Feb18 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
- Giles
- Gladstone
-
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Climate History
East Carnarvon Climatology
East Carnarvon Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.4 32.5 31.7 29.2 26.4 23.5 22.5 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.7 29.5 27.4 Mean Min (°C) 22.6 23.4 22.2 19.1 14.8 12.2 10.9 11.6 13.9 16.5 18.7 20.8 17.2 Mean Rain (mm) 11.1 20.8 15.8 15.7 33.1 45.6 41.7 16.9 6.4 4.9 3.7 5.1 220.4 Mean Rain Days 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.8 5.3 7.9 7.7 5.5 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.7 43.0