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Forecast

Bulgarra (20.7271°S, 116.8544°E, 13m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Sunny 22° 38°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:02am WST 5:25am WST 6:29pm WST 6:53pm WST
    NOW
    30.4° Feels Like: 27.0°
    Relative Humidity: 52%
    Dew: 19.7°
    Wind: W 35km/h
    Gust: 39km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1010.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Bulgarra
    Now
    35.7°c
    Feels Like:
    28.9°
    Wind:
    W 32km/h
    Gusts:
    39km/h
    Humidity:
    18%
    Sunny
     
    22°
    Min
    38°
    Max
    Today in Bulgarra
    Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the northeast in the afternoon. Winds SE/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending NE/SE 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then tending NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 27 with daytime temperatures reaching 38 to 44.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    22°
    Min
    38°
    Max
    Very hot and mostly sunny. Winds SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending NE/SE 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning then becoming SE 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 28 with daytime temperatures reaching 39 to 45.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the northeast in the afternoon. Winds SE/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending NE/SE 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then tending NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 27 with daytime temperatures reaching 38 to 44.

    Forecast for Bulgarra (20.7271°S, 116.8544°E, 13m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny
    Minimum 22° 23° 25° 25° 27° 25° 24°
    Maximum 38° 39° 40° 40° 42° 40° 38°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 17
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SSW W SW W SW WNW SSE NW SE N ENE NNW W NW
    Relative humidity 23% 27% 23% 23% 24% 30% 28% 28% 21% 20% 31% 31% 35% 29%
    Dew point 10°C 15°C 11°C 14°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 18°C 13°C 14°C 18°C 19°C 17°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Bulgarra Rain Forecast


    Bulgarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 November to 1 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 November to 23 November, and 15 December to 19 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 November to 22 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 14 December to 18 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Bulgarra Rain Forecast


    Bulgarra 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    4
    7
    7
    6
    7
    7
    7
    10
    9
    8
    9
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Bulgarra Rain Forecast


    Bulgarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 November to 1 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 November to 23 November, and 15 December to 19 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 November to 22 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 14 December to 18 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Bulgarra Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Nov 08
    22.6 °C 40.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Nov 09
    24.5 °C 40.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 10
    22.4 °C 41.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 11
    24.7 °C 37.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 12
    23.8 °C 38 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Bulgarra minimum temp history (20.7271°S, 116.8544°E, 13m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 41.3° 10/11/2019 Coldest this month 18.9° 03/11/2019
    Hottest on record 44.8 05/11/2013 Coldest on record 16.0 10/11/1995
    Hottest this year 45.5° 16/02/2019 Coldest this year 8.0° 12/06/2019
    Long term average 35.0° Long term average 23.1°
    Average this month 37.8° Average this month 21.8°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 37.6° 1994 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 21.7° 2008
    Bulgarra rainfall history (20.7271°S, 116.8544°E, 13m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/11/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 1.4mm 0.4 days Wettest November on record 38.0mm 1994
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Bulgarra Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 285.7mm 26.2 day(s)
    Total For 2019 104.8mm 14.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 145.6mm 14.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 18.0mm Mar18
    Lowest Temperature 8.0°C Jun12
    Highest Temperature 45.5°C Feb16
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Bulgarra Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 35.9 35.8 36.1 34.3 30.0 26.5 26.2 28.3 30.8 34.1 35.0 35.8 32.4
    Mean Min (°C) 26.8 26.7 25.9 22.7 18.3 15.1 13.8 14.3 16.9 20.8 23.1 25.6 20.9
    Mean Rain (mm) 50.3 80.2 49.1 18.0 29.2 36.5 14.8 4.4 1.3 0.5 1.4 14.6 303.1
    Mean Rain Days 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.2 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.4 26.4