Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Coastal Central West, Lower West (including Perth), Gascoyne Coast, North Interior, Inland Central West - North, Leeuwin, Nelson, Stirling Inland and Beaufort fire weather districts
Issued at 02:54 AM WST on Friday 13 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot and dry. Fresh and gusty east to northeast winds across the Interior, Gascoyne and Central West in the morning. Moderate to fresh afternoon seabreezes across the South West Land Division and Gascoyne coasts and adjacent inland areas.
For the rest of Friday 13 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Coastal Central West, Lower West (including Perth), Gascoyne Coast, North Interior, Inland Central West - North, Leeuwin, Nelson, Stirling Inland and Beaufort
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Broke (34.9857°S, 116.629°E, 8m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY18° 35° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:26am WST 4:56am WST 7:24pm WST 7:53pm WST NOW27.5° Feels Like: 28.0° Relative Humidity: 55% Dew: 17.7° Wind: S 11km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1017.9hPa -
Today Weather
BrokeNow27.9°cFeels Like:24.1°Wind:N 18km/hGusts:30km/hHumidity:31%18°Min35°MaxToday in BrokeVery hot and sunny. Winds E/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending N/NW 15 to 20 km/h during the morning. Winds shift W/S-SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon then become light in the late evening except about the Darling Scarp where they will tend E/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures 34 to 40.Tomorrow16°Min34°MaxVery hot and sunny. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 41. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Very hot and sunny. Winds E/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending N/NW 15 to 20 km/h during the morning. Winds shift W/S-SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon then become light in the late evening except about the Darling Scarp where they will tend E/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures 34 to 40.
Forecast for Broke (34.9857°S, 116.629°E, 8m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 18° 16° 15° 14° 13° 13° 14° Maximum 35° 34° 33° 26° 26° 31° 22° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 40% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 7
(km/h)14
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)7
(km/h)19
(km/h)19
(km/h)27
(km/h)12
(km/h)18
(km/h)8
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction NE S S SSW N SW SSE SSE S SSW SSE S NNW WSW Relative humidity 52% 58% 65% 66% 56% 66% 77% 71% 77% 72% 72% 68% 73% 70% Dew point 21°C 21°C 21°C 23°C 20°C 22°C 16°C 20°C 16°C 20°C 17°C 23°C 15°C 15°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Broke Rain Forecast
Broke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
14
15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
21
22
23
24
LOW25
26
LOW27
28
29
30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
9
10
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Broke Rain Forecast
Broke 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020586655544737105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Broke Rain Forecast
Broke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
14
15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
21
22
23
24
LOW25
26
LOW27
28
29
30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
9
10
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Broke Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 098.3 °C 22.5 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1011.5 °C - 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 11- 24.5 °C -Thursday
Dec 1212.4 °C 28 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 1313 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Broke minimum temp history (34.9857°S, 116.629°E, 8m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.3° 06/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.3° 09/12/2019 Hottest on record 35.9 31/12/2012 Coldest on record 6.7 06/12/2007 Hottest this year 37.3° 06/12/2019 Coldest this year 4.9° 19/05/2019 Long term average 22.4° Long term average 12.8° Average this month 25.8° Average this month 12.8° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.1° 2012 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.4° 2005 Broke rainfall history (34.9857°S, 116.629°E, 8m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 7.2mm 08/12/2019 Total This Month 8.0mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 42.9mm 12.6 days Wettest December on record 81.2mm 2012 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Broke Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1098.4mm 184.2 day(s) Total For 2019 954.4mm 176.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 882.0mm 167.0 day(s) Wettest Day 39.6mm Jun 9 Lowest Temperature 4.9°C May19 Highest Temperature 37.3°C Dec 6 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Broke Climatology
Broke Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.5 25.0 23.8 21.4 19.0 16.9 16.0 16.7 17.3 19.0 21.1 22.4 20.3 Mean Min (°C) 14.5 15.1 14.3 12.8 11.3 9.9 8.8 9.1 9.2 10.5 11.8 12.8 11.7 Mean Rain (mm) 29.8 22.2 39.2 87.2 126.2 159.2 175.2 152.1 122.8 81.4 60.2 42.9 1080.1 Mean Rain Days 8.9 8.1 11.3 15.3 19.1 19.1 21.7 20.5 17.4 16.7 13.5 12.6 174.4