Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Exmouth Gulf Coast, Gascoyne Coast and Coastal Central West - North fire weather districts
Issued at 03:58 PM WST on Thursday 28 January 2021
Weather Situation
Very hot conditions, with a fresh to strong and gusty sea breeze developing about the northern west coast.
For Friday 29 January:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Exmouth Gulf Coast, Gascoyne Coast and Coastal Central West - North
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am WST Friday.
Forecast
Bolgart (31.2749°S, 116.5086°E, 228m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY13° 30° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:11am WST 5:37am WST 7:17pm WST 7:43pm WST NOW27.8° Feels Like: 24.1° Relative Humidity: 46% Dew: 15.1° Wind: SW 28km/h Gust: 39km/h Rainfall since 9am: Pressure: 1010.5hPa -
Today Weather
BolgartNow32.2°cFeels Like:26.5°Wind:SE 26km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:21%13°Min30°MaxToday in BolgartClear. Winds S/SE 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 20 to 25 km/h in the late evening.Tomorrow18°Min32°MaxSunny. Winds S/SE 20 to 30 km/h tending E/SE 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 34 to 39. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Clear. Winds S/SE 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 20 to 25 km/h in the late evening.
Forecast for Bolgart (31.2749°S, 116.5086°E, 228m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 13° 18° 19° 21° 20° 19° 21° Maximum 30° 32° 33° 37° 35° 34° 34° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 30% 30% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)22
(km/h)25
(km/h)24
(km/h)25
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)14
(km/h)27
(km/h)26
(km/h)25
(km/h)19
(km/h)18
(km/h)25
(km/h)Wind direction SE SE ESE ESE E ESE ENE S ESE ESE E ESE ESE SE Relative humidity 54% 26% 49% 19% 37% 17% 28% 16% 46% 17% 37% 16% 31% 16% Dew point 11°C 9°C 12°C 6°C 9°C 5°C 9°C 8°C 12°C 7°C 9°C 6°C 8°C 5°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bolgart Rain Forecast
Bolgart 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
29
30
31
Feb 1
2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
5
6
LOW7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bolgart Rain Forecast
Bolgart 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021878765768578105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bolgart Rain Forecast
Bolgart 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
29
30
31
Feb 1
2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
5
6
LOW7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bolgart Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 24- 39.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2515.5 °C - 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 26- 30.5 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2714.0 °C 29.3 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Jan 2812.5 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bolgart minimum temp history (31.2749°S, 116.5086°E, 228m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 43.5° 03/01/2021 Coldest this month 11.0° 04/01/2021 Hottest on record 46.5 12/01/2014 Coldest on record 8.8 06/01/1982 Hottest this year 43.5° 03/01/2021 Coldest this year 11.0° 04/01/2021 Long term average 34.2° Long term average 17.1° Average this month 35.3° Average this month 16.4° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 36.3° 1993 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 15.6° 1975 Bolgart rainfall history (31.2749°S, 116.5086°E, 228m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.6mm 19/01/2021 Total This Month 2.8mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 14.0mm 1.9 days Wettest January on record 141.7mm 2000 Driest on record 0.0mm 2020 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Bolgart Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 14.0mm 1.9 day(s) Total For 2021 2.8mm 3.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 0.0mm 0.0 day(s) Wettest Day 1.6mm Jan19 Lowest Temperature 11.0°C Jan 4 Highest Temperature 43.5°C Jan 3 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bolgart Climatology
Bolgart Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 34.2 33.3 30.1 25.6 21.0 17.8 16.6 17.3 19.9 24.4 28.2 32.0 24.9 Mean Min (°C) 17.1 17.3 15.8 12.4 9.5 7.9 6.7 6.5 7.1 9.4 12.5 15.4 11.4 Mean Rain (mm) 14.0 15.3 17.9 21.6 46.5 64.3 64.2 48.0 27.1 20.0 12.1 10.0 365.1 Mean Rain Days 1.9 2.3 2.9 4.6 8.9 12.5 13.8 11.9 8.5 5.8 3.4 2.1 78.7