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Forecast

Wartook (37.0334°S, 142.3406°E, 198m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 23°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 10%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:32am EDT 6:03am EDT 8:42pm EDT 9:13pm EDT
    NOW
    12.5° Feels Like: 8.9°
    Relative Humidity: 79%
    Dew: 9.0°
    Wind: S 17km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1016.9hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Wartook
    Now
    13.4°c
    Feels Like:
    10.0°
    Wind:
    SW 17km/h
    Gusts:
    20km/h
    Humidity:
    77%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Today in Wartook
    Partly cloudy. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to high 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    24°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Winds S 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 8 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Wartook

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to high 20s.

    Forecast for Wartook (37.0334°S, 142.3406°E, 198m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10° 11° 13° 15°
    Maximum 23° 24° 27° 29° 33° 37° 37°
    Chance of rain 10% 20% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 19
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SW SSW SW WSW WSW WSW W W SSW SW NE NNW NE W
    Relative humidity 63% 37% 67% 44% 72% 36% 57% 22% 46% 21% 39% 16% 33% 17%
    Dew point 8°C 8°C 7°C 11°C 10°C 10°C 8°C 5°C 7°C 7°C 8°C 7°C 8°C 7°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Wartook Rain Forecast


    Wartook 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Jan 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec11

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Wartook Rain Forecast


    Wartook 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    2019
    2020
    4
    6
    6
    6
    6
    5
    6
    6
    5
    5
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Dec 11

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Wartook Rain Forecast


    Wartook 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Jan 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec11

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Wartook Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Dec 07
    6.9 °C 26.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Dec 08
    5.5 °C 31.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Dec 09
    14.3 °C 38.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Dec 10
    11.7 °C 22.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Dec 11
    9.3 °C 24 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Wartook minimum temp history (37.0334°S, 142.3406°E, 198m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 38.5° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.5° 08/12/2019
    Hottest on record 43.5 31/12/2005 Coldest on record 3.5 07/12/2002
    Hottest this year 42.8° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.6° 24/06/2019
    Long term average 26.6° Long term average 11.3°
    Average this month 24.1° Average this month 9.0°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.5° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.6° 2001
    Wartook rainfall history (37.0334°S, 142.3406°E, 198m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 1.4mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 1.6mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 35.9mm 7.3 days Wettest December on record 100.8mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Wartook Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 492.5mm 120.8 day(s)
    Total For 2019 384.4mm 112.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 326.0mm 110.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 68.6mm May 2
    Lowest Temperature -2.6°C Jun24
    Highest Temperature 42.8°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Wartook Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.2 28.7 25.4 20.7 16.3 13.2 12.4 13.9 16.7 20.0 23.8 26.6 20.6
    Mean Min (°C) 13.6 13.7 11.5 8.5 6.3 4.7 4.2 4.7 6.0 7.4 9.8 11.3 8.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 37.6 30.6 20.7 30.0 39.8 55.0 57.6 53.9 54.3 36.1 41.0 35.9 490.7
    Mean Rain Days 4.9 4.5 5.8 6.9 11.9 15.2 18.4 15.7 12.9 10.0 7.3 7.3 116.7