Forecast
Waranga Shores (36.4991°S, 145.1139°E, 107m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 25° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:24am EDT 5:54am EDT 8:31pm EDT 9:01pm EDT NOW12.8° Feels Like: 8.2° Relative Humidity: 76% Dew: 8.7° Wind: SSW 22km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Waranga ShoresNow11.9°cFeels Like:9.6°Wind:SSW 11km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:83%10°Min25°MaxToday in Waranga ShoresSunny. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s.Tomorrow9°Min26°MaxMostly sunny. Winds S/SW 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 9 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Waranga Shores
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s.
Forecast for Waranga Shores (36.4991°S, 145.1139°E, 107m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 10° 9° 11° 12° 13° 14° 18° Maximum 25° 26° 29° 31° 33° 38° 39° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)28
(km/h)20
(km/h)19
(km/h)16
(km/h)20
(km/h)11
(km/h)22
(km/h)13
(km/h)19
(km/h)14
(km/h)11
(km/h)15
(km/h)19
(km/h)Wind direction SSW SSW SW SW WSW W WSW W SSW SW ENE NNW E W Relative humidity 60% 29% 57% 29% 64% 28% 53% 16% 43% 17% 43% 14% 33% 14% Dew point 9°C 6°C 6°C 5°C 11°C 8°C 9°C 1°C 7°C 4°C 11°C 5°C 9°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Waranga Shores Rain Forecast
Waranga Shores 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Waranga Shores Rain Forecast
Waranga Shores 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020366655755457105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Waranga Shores Rain Forecast
Waranga Shores 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Waranga Shores Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 078.7 °C 26.4 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 089.6 °C 31.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0913.2 °C 38.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1016.6 °C 25.8 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1110.7 °C 26 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Waranga Shores minimum temp history (36.4991°S, 145.1139°E, 107m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 38.1° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.4° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 42.1 31/12/2005 Coldest on record 2.0 14/12/1995 Hottest this year 44.8° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.0° 24/06/2019 Long term average 27.5° Long term average 12.3° Average this month 25.4° Average this month 9.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.2° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.2° 1995 Waranga Shores rainfall history (36.4991°S, 145.1139°E, 107m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 0.4mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 34.4mm 6.0 days Wettest December on record 145.0mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Waranga Shores Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 489.1mm 105.4 day(s) Total For 2019 252.2mm 90.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 281.4mm 77.0 day(s) Wettest Day 29.6mm May 2 Lowest Temperature -2.0°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 44.8°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Waranga Shores Climatology
Waranga Shores Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.6 29.5 26.4 21.7 17.3 14.0 13.0 14.7 17.4 21.1 24.7 27.5 21.4 Mean Min (°C) 14.2 14.4 11.9 8.3 5.8 3.7 3.0 3.9 5.4 7.5 10.3 12.3 8.4 Mean Rain (mm) 33.5 33.7 34.7 35.1 44.7 45.7 49.0 47.6 43.7 46.3 40.7 34.4 488.6 Mean Rain Days 4.5 4.2 5.2 6.8 10.8 12.7 14.7 13.1 10.5 9.4 7.5 6.0 104.4