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Forecast

Waarre (38.613°S, 143.0658°E, 85m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy 20° 29°
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:29am EDT 6:00am EDT 8:24pm EDT 8:55pm EDT
    NOW
    29.5° Feels Like: 20.2°
    Relative Humidity: 17%
    Dew: 1.9°
    Wind: N 39km/h
    Gust: 56km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 998.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Waarre
    Now
    26.0°c
    Feels Like:
    19.0°
    Wind:
    N 33km/h
    Gusts:
    37km/h
    Humidity:
    31%
    Windy
     
    20°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Today in Waarre
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon with little or no rainfall and gusty winds. Gusty winds near the Otways this afternoon. Winds N 30 to 45 km/h shifting SW 35 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 36.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    10°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW in the morning then tending S/SW in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 22.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon with little or no rainfall and gusty winds. Gusty winds near the Otways this afternoon. Winds N 30 to 45 km/h shifting SW 35 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 36.

    Forecast for Waarre (38.613°S, 143.0658°E, 85m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Windy Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Windy with showers Mostly sunny
    Minimum 20° 10° 10° 10°
    Maximum 29° 16° 17° 16° 19° 14° 16°
    Chance of rain 30% 20% 40% 5% 60% 50% 30%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Extreme Very High Very High Extreme Very High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 37
    (km/h)
    41
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N W WSW W WNW W NW SW NNW WNW SW SW W W
    Relative humidity 38% 84% 70% 65% 81% 73% 71% 66% 66% 62% 72% 65% 68% 67%
    Dew point 11°C 15°C 7°C 9°C 10°C 12°C 7°C 9°C 9°C 12°C 6°C 8°C 7°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Waarre Rain Forecast


    Waarre 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 November to 2 December, 9 December to 13 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, and 3 December to 7 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Waarre Rain Forecast


    Waarre 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    9
    5
    9
    6
    5
    5
    6
    7
    5
    5
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Waarre Rain Forecast


    Waarre 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 November to 2 December, 9 December to 13 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, and 3 December to 7 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Waarre Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Nov 16
    10.6 °C 14.3 °C
    0.4 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 17
    10.2 °C 14.3 °C
    0.4 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18
    9.2 °C 16.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19
    12.0 °C 15.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20
    9.3 °C 19 °C
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Waarre minimum temp history (38.613°S, 143.0658°E, 85m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 27.3° 01/11/2019 Coldest this month 7.5° 09/11/2019
    Hottest on record 39.4 24/11/1888 Coldest on record 1.4 14/11/1866
    Hottest this year 38.5° 01/03/2019 Coldest this year 4.8° 10/08/2019
    Long term average 18.2° Long term average 10.7°
    Average this month 15.8° Average this month 10.5°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.2° 1882 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 3.7° 1866
    Waarre rainfall history (38.613°S, 143.0658°E, 85m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 18.2mm 08/11/2019 Total This Month 68.0mm
    15.0 days
    Long Term Average 63.1mm 14.0 days Wettest November on record 146.5mm 1882
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Waarre Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 837.1mm 174.5 day(s)
    Total For 2019 851.8mm 180.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 850.6mm 167.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 35.0mm May10
    Lowest Temperature 4.8°C Aug10
    Highest Temperature 38.5°C Mar 1
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Waarre Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 21.3 21.5 20.3 17.9 15.6 13.6 13.0 13.8 15.2 16.9 18.2 19.8 17.2
    Mean Min (°C) 13.3 14.0 13.2 11.7 10.1 8.5 7.5 7.8 8.5 9.5 10.7 12.0 10.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 44.2 40.5 56.5 71.3 89.7 96.4 104.4 103.7 88.0 79.3 63.1 53.1 889.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 9.0 12.5 15.3 18.4 19.0 20.4 20.6 18.7 16.8 14.0 12.4 184.9