Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Victoria
Issued at 05:10 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 07 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Friday 06 December
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Central Gippsland Coast and East Gippsland Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Western Port, Gippsland Lakes, West Coast and Central Coast
Wind Warnings for Saturday 07 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Central Coast, Central Gippsland Coast and East Gippsland Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:40 pm EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Tuerong (38.2974°S, 145.0775°E, 101m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 20° Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:19am EDT 5:50am EDT 8:32pm EDT 9:03pm EDT NOW12.7° Feels Like: 8.8° Relative Humidity: 70% Dew: 7.4° Wind: W 17km/h Gust: 26km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1009.0hPa -
Today Weather
TuerongNow12.3°cFeels Like:9.6°Wind:W 11km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:74%10°Min20°MaxToday in TuerongPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a light shower in the southeast in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W/SW 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 22.Tomorrow10°Min20°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending S/SW 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a light shower in the southeast in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W/SW 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 22.
Forecast for Tuerong (38.2974°S, 145.0775°E, 101m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 10° 10° 10° 12° 12° 10° 10° Maximum 20° 20° 23° 33° 20° 19° 19° Chance of rain 50% 5% 5% 30% 20% 50% 70% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 26
(km/h)26
(km/h)19
(km/h)19
(km/h)6
(km/h)9
(km/h)16
(km/h)17
(km/h)17
(km/h)20
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction WNW WSW W SW ESE S NE NNE WSW SW SSW SSW WSW SW Relative humidity 73% 61% 71% 61% 72% 55% 57% 39% 78% 68% 76% 67% 75% 64% Dew point 9°C 13°C 8°C 13°C 9°C 13°C 13°C 18°C 12°C 14°C 9°C 12°C 9°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tuerong Rain Forecast
Tuerong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
LOW7
8
9
MEDIUM10
LOW11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tuerong Rain Forecast
Tuerong 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2019202058665684355105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tuerong Rain Forecast
Tuerong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
LOW7
8
9
MEDIUM10
LOW11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tuerong Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 0110.0 °C 17.0 °C 0.8 mmMonday
Dec 028.3 °C 14.5 °C 4.6 mmTuesday
Dec 038.5 °C 19.6 °C 3.8 mmWednesday
Dec 0410.6 °C 19.2 °C 7.0 mmThursday
Dec 0511.9 °C 21 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tuerong minimum temp history (38.2974°S, 145.0775°E, 101m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 19.6° 03/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.3° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 42.4 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 3.3 04/12/2008 Hottest this year 42.1° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.0° 25/06/2019 Long term average 22.5° Long term average 11.9° Average this month 17.5° Average this month 9.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.2° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 10.3° 1995 Tuerong rainfall history (38.2974°S, 145.0775°E, 101m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 7.0mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 16.4mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 55.7mm 10.8 days Wettest December on record 105.8mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Tuerong Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 744.4mm 166.8 day(s) Total For 2019 589.2mm 167.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 558.0mm 155.0 day(s) Wettest Day 23.0mm Jun13 Lowest Temperature -1.0°C Jun25 Highest Temperature 42.1°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Tuerong Climatology
Tuerong Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.4 24.9 23.1 19.8 16.6 14.2 13.6 14.6 16.4 18.5 20.4 22.5 19.1 Mean Min (°C) 13.9 14.2 12.5 10.0 8.4 6.9 6.4 6.7 7.6 8.7 10.6 11.9 9.8 Mean Rain (mm) 39.1 42.1 46.6 63.8 71.6 77.2 76.9 75.8 69.1 69.7 56.8 55.7 742.6 Mean Rain Days 7.9 7.1 10.9 14.2 17.2 18.1 18.9 18.4 16.3 15.5 11.5 10.8 152.0