Forecast
Torwood (38.2541°S, 145.8781°E, 131m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 18° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:16am EDT 5:47am EDT 8:27pm EDT 8:58pm EDT NOW17.5° Feels Like: 11.6° Relative Humidity: 54% Dew: 8.3° Wind: W 28km/h Gust: 35km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
TorwoodNow15.9°cFeels Like:6.9°Wind:WSW 46km/hGusts:57km/hHumidity:68%10°Min18°MaxToday in TorwoodPartly cloudy. Medium chance of light showers in the southwest, becoming less likely this afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 16 and 23.Tomorrow9°Min20°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a light shower near Wilsons Promontory in the early morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Torwood
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of light showers in the southwest, becoming less likely this afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 16 and 23.
Forecast for Torwood (38.2541°S, 145.8781°E, 131m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 10° 9° 8° 11° 13° 10° 9° Maximum 18° 20° 25° 35° 20° 19° 18° Chance of rain 20% 5% 5% 20% 5% 30% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 15
(km/h)20
(km/h)11
(km/h)15
(km/h)3
(km/h)6
(km/h)11
(km/h)15
(km/h)9
(km/h)13
(km/h)6
(km/h)11
(km/h)9
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction WNW W WNW WSW SSE S NNE NNW WSW SW SSW SSW WSW WSW Relative humidity 79% 55% 73% 52% 68% 44% 51% 27% 73% 57% 74% 55% 75% 60% Dew point 9°C 9°C 8°C 10°C 10°C 12°C 13°C 14°C 12°C 12°C 10°C 10°C 9°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Torwood Rain Forecast
Torwood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
18
19
LOW20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
LOW29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Torwood Rain Forecast
Torwood 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020356654754456105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Torwood Rain Forecast
Torwood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
18
19
LOW20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
LOW29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Torwood Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 018.4 °C 15.9 °C 0.2 mmMonday
Dec 026.8 °C 13.8 °C 19.4 mmTuesday
Dec 037.4 °C 18.7 °C 7.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0410.4 °C 19.6 °C 0.6 mmThursday
Dec 0511.5 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Torwood minimum temp history (38.2541°S, 145.8781°E, 131m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 17.5° 01/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.4° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 41.7 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 2.0 02/12/1982 Hottest this year 41.7° 06/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.8° 24/06/2019 Long term average 22.0° Long term average 11.7° Average this month 16.5° Average this month 9.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.0° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.9° 1982 Torwood rainfall history (38.2541°S, 145.8781°E, 131m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 16.0mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 32.8mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 60.1mm 9.4 days Wettest December on record 143.2mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Torwood Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 929.9mm 149.7 day(s) Total For 2019 871.1mm 144.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 797.2mm 164.0 day(s) Wettest Day 48.4mm Aug12 Lowest Temperature 0.8°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 41.7°C Jan 6 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Torwood Climatology
Torwood Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 23.9 24.6 22.8 19.7 16.7 14.2 13.5 14.5 16.1 18.2 20.0 22.0 18.8 Mean Min (°C) 13.1 13.4 12.3 10.4 8.7 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.8 8.8 10.4 11.7 9.7 Mean Rain (mm) 48.2 44.9 60.1 78.0 98.2 95.9 98.9 100.8 88.8 87.1 68.9 60.1 930.1 Mean Rain Days 7.7 6.9 9.5 12.2 15.1 15.5 17.1 16.9 14.9 13.5 11.0 9.4 146.6