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Forecast

Toorloo Arm (37.8072°S, 148.0394°E, 25m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 11° 21°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:08am EDT 5:39am EDT 8:20pm EDT 8:51pm EDT
    NOW
    10.5° Feels Like: 7.1°
    Relative Humidity: 66%
    Dew: 4.4°
    Wind: W 11km/h
    Gust: 19km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Toorloo Arm
    Now
    13.5°c
    Feels Like:
    10.1°
    Wind:
    WNW 13km/h
    Gusts:
    19km/h
    Humidity:
    61%
    Mostly sunny
     
    11°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Toorloo Arm
    Mostly sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h tending SW 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    11°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Patchy fog about the ranges in the early morning. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 21 to 26.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h tending SW 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

    Forecast for Toorloo Arm (37.8072°S, 148.0394°E, 25m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 11° 11° 11° 15° 11° 11° 10°
    Maximum 21° 19° 27° 21° 19° 19° 18°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 20% 20% 50% 40%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 27
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W SW W SSE NE ESE WSW SSW WSW S WSW SSW WSW SSW
    Relative humidity 61% 56% 72% 64% 67% 50% 72% 71% 73% 67% 77% 68% 66% 60%
    Dew point 8°C 12°C 10°C 12°C 15°C 16°C 13°C 14°C 10°C 13°C 11°C 13°C 7°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Toorloo Arm Rain Forecast


    Toorloo Arm 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    Jan 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 6

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Toorloo Arm Rain Forecast


    Toorloo Arm 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    2019
    2020
    1
    4
    5
    8
    6
    4
    7
    6
    2
    3
    5
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Toorloo Arm Rain Forecast


    Toorloo Arm 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    Jan 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 6

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Toorloo Arm Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Dec 02
    9.4 °C 16.6 °C
    4.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Dec 03
    10.0 °C 22.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Dec 04
    12.5 °C 20.9 °C
    0.4 mm
    Thursday
    Dec 05
    10.7 °C 23.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Dec 06
    13.2 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Toorloo Arm minimum temp history (37.8072°S, 148.0394°E, 25m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 23.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.8° 01/12/2019
    Hottest on record 41.7 20/12/2015 Coldest on record 5.9 13/12/2006
    Hottest this year 44.6° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.0° 24/08/2019
    Long term average 22.8° Long term average 13.0°
    Average this month 20.5° Average this month 10.6°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.5° 2016 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.4° 2006
    Toorloo Arm rainfall history (37.8072°S, 148.0394°E, 25m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 4.8mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 9.2mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 61.9mm 9.2 days Wettest December on record 140.1mm 2016
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Toorloo Arm Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 748.0mm 109.7 day(s)
    Total For 2019 490.8mm 110.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 360.8mm 95.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 79.0mm May17
    Lowest Temperature -2.0°C Aug24
    Highest Temperature 44.6°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Toorloo Arm Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 24.5 23.7 23.0 20.2 18.0 15.1 15.2 16.0 18.1 19.7 21.2 22.8 19.8
    Mean Min (°C) 15.0 14.9 13.6 11.0 8.6 6.4 5.8 6.3 7.9 9.5 11.6 13.0 10.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 37.2 54.1 60.2 72.5 40.4 109.4 53.6 59.7 55.5 67.1 76.4 61.9 747.2
    Mean Rain Days 7.2 8.1 8.6 9.6 7.5 10.3 10.9 9.5 9.3 9.5 10.0 9.2 100.6