Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Cancellation Of Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 7:25 pm Tuesday, 19 March 2024.
Severe thunderstorms have now eased in the northeast.
Weather Situation
Isolated thunderstorms continue in parts of the Northeast and Gippsland, but are no longer likely to be severe.
cancellation of severe thunderstorm warning for the following areas:
East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland
The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
No further warnings will be issued for this event.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Toolamba East (36.4149°S, 145.1787°E, 104m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW12° 19° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:56am EDT 7:22am EDT 7:30pm EDT 7:56pm EDT NOW22.7° Feels Like: 21.6° Relative Humidity: 56% Dew: 13.7° Wind: W 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 10.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Toolamba EastNow22.8°cFeels Like:22.2°Wind:SW 9km/hGusts:9km/hHumidity:57%12°Min19°MaxToday in Toolamba EastSunny. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 22.Tomorrow12°Min19°MaxSunny. Winds S 15 to 20 km/h tending SE in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 7 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 22.
Forecast for Toolamba East (36.4149°S, 145.1787°E, 104m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 7° 9° 11° 10° 9° 10° Maximum 19° 23° 25° 25° 23° 24° 21° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 10% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 25
(km/h)27
(km/h)11
(km/h)6
(km/h)12
(km/h)6
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)15
(km/h)17
(km/h)19
(km/h)Wind direction SW SW S E ENE NNW S SSW SW WSW WSW W SSW SW Relative humidity 60% 32% 65% 34% 73% 38% 73% 35% 79% 33% 82% 39% 76% 37% Dew point 6°C 1°C 5°C 5°C 10°C 9°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 5°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Toolamba East Rain Forecast
Toolamba East 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Toolamba East Rain Forecast
Toolamba East 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025555766657699105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Toolamba East Rain Forecast
Toolamba East 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Toolamba East Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1514.4 °C 29.2 °C 0.2 mmSaturday
Mar 1616.1 °C 27.9 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1714.3 °C 28.7 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1814.2 °C 30.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1916.7 °C 30.7 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Toolamba East minimum temp history (36.4149°S, 145.1787°E, 104m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.9° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 9.5° 05/03/2024 Hottest on record 39.6 12/03/1998 Coldest on record 3.3 30/03/1965 Hottest this year 38.5° 04/02/2024 Coldest this year 9.5° 05/03/2024 Long term average 26.4° Long term average 12.0° Average this month 30.5° Average this month 15.0° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.5° 2017 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 9.3° 1970 Toolamba East rainfall history (36.4149°S, 145.1787°E, 104m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 0.4mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 34.6mm 5.3 days Wettest March on record 184.2mm 1950 Driest on record 0.0mm 2003 -
Year to Date
Toolamba East Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 101.3mm 14.3 day(s) Total For 2024 155.0mm 17.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 52.4mm 12.0 day(s) Wettest Day 52.2mm Jan 3 Lowest Temperature 9.5°C Mar 5 Highest Temperature 38.5°C Feb 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Toolamba East Climatology
Toolamba East Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.8 29.5 26.4 21.7 17.2 13.9 13.1 14.7 17.5 21.2 24.9 27.7 21.4 Mean Min (°C) 14.4 14.4 12.0 8.4 5.7 3.7 3.0 3.9 5.4 7.6 10.4 12.4 8.4 Mean Rain (mm) 35.0 31.7 34.6 35.8 44.1 45.4 46.6 46.7 42.2 47.0 39.8 35.2 482.1 Mean Rain Days 4.8 4.2 5.3 6.9 10.9 13.1 14.8 13.0 10.6 9.5 7.5 6.1 106.4