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Forecast

Tonghi Creek (37.5645°S, 149.0614°E, 96m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Clearing shower 17° 21°
    clearing shower
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:34am EDT 6:04am EDT 8:24pm EDT 8:54pm EDT
    NOW
    17.3° Feels Like: 19.3°
    Relative Humidity: 97%
    Dew: 16.8°
    Wind: NNW 2km/h
    Gust: 4km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 3.4mm
    Pressure: 1003.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Tonghi Creek
    Now
    17.3°c
    Feels Like:
    17.5°
    Wind:
    N 6km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    81%
    Clearing shower
     
    17°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Tonghi Creek
    Cloudy. High chance of showers in the morning. Areas of smoke haze about the ranges. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 24.
    Tomorrow
    Clearing shower
    17°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 32.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers in the morning. Areas of smoke haze about the ranges. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 24.

    Forecast for Tonghi Creek (37.5645°S, 149.0614°E, 96m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Clearing shower Mostly sunny Late shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy
    Minimum 17° 16° 22° 15° 15° 18° 16°
    Maximum 21° 29° 27° 23° 26° 27° 26°
    Chance of rain 80% 10% 40% 10% 5% 10% 10%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 21
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW WSW NE ENE WSW SW W SW N S W SSW WSW S
    Relative humidity 92% 81% 76% 53% 72% 72% 69% 56% 69% 64% 77% 73% 73% 64%
    Dew point 18°C 18°C 18°C 18°C 21°C 18°C 12°C 13°C 14°C 18°C 20°C 20°C 15°C 19°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tonghi Creek Rain Forecast


    Tonghi Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    HIGH
    7
    HIGH
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 January to 22 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, and 11 February to 15 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tonghi Creek Rain Forecast


    Tonghi Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    7
    7
    9
    3
    5
    6
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tonghi Creek Rain Forecast


    Tonghi Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    HIGH
    7
    HIGH
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 January to 22 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, and 11 February to 15 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tonghi Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Wednesday
    Jan 01
    - -
    -
    Thursday
    Jan 02
    - -
    -
    Friday
    Jan 03
    - -
    -
    Saturday
    Jan 04
    - -
    -
    Sunday
    Jan 05
    - -
    -
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Tonghi Creek minimum temp history (37.5645°S, 149.0614°E, 96m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month - Coldest this month -
    Hottest on record 42.7 09/01/1979 Coldest on record 1.6 01/01/1995
    Hottest this year ° - Coldest this year ° -
    Long term average 23.8° Long term average 15.8°
    Average this month - Average this month -
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.2° 2009 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 13.8° 1992
    Tonghi Creek rainfall history (37.5645°S, 149.0614°E, 96m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month mm Total This Month mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 62.7mm 9.5 days Wettest January on record 218.3mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Tonghi Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 62.7mm 9.5 day(s)
    Total For 2020 mm 0.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 20.3mm 6.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day mm
    Lowest Temperature °C
    Highest Temperature °C
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Tonghi Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 23.8 23.7 22.2 19.8 17.1 14.8 14.2 15.0 16.6 18.7 20.3 22.2 19.0
    Mean Min (°C) 15.8 16.0 15.1 13.1 11.1 9.1 8.2 8.4 9.6 11.0 12.7 14.2 12.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 62.7 59.0 67.5 87.1 94.7 113.2 98.3 79.9 77.0 75.9 80.5 72.7 968.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.5 8.8 10.5 12.1 13.8 14.5 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 12.4 10.9 145.8