Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Victoria
Issued at 05:10 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 07 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Friday 06 December
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Central Gippsland Coast and East Gippsland Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Western Port, Gippsland Lakes, West Coast and Central Coast
Wind Warnings for Saturday 07 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Central Coast, Central Gippsland Coast and East Gippsland Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:40 pm EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Timboon West (38.5052°S, 142.9144°E, 62m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 17° possible shower Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:29am EDT 6:00am EDT 8:42pm EDT 9:13pm EDT NOW11.0° Feels Like: 8.5° Relative Humidity: 93% Dew: 9.9° Wind: WNW 13km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm Pressure: 1010.7hPa -
Today Weather
Timboon WestNow10.9°cFeels Like:7.2°Wind:W 17km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:84%10°Min17°MaxToday in Timboon WestCloudy. Medium chance of light showers in the south, becoming less likely in the early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 20 to 25 km/h turning SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.Tomorrow9°Min18°MaxMostly sunny. Patchy fog in the west in the early morning. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 24. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of light showers in the south, becoming less likely in the early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 20 to 25 km/h turning SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.
Forecast for Timboon West (38.5052°S, 142.9144°E, 62m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 10° 9° 9° 15° 12° 10° 10° Maximum 17° 18° 25° 29° 17° 17° 17° Chance of rain 40% 10% 5% 30% 30% 30% 80% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)34
(km/h)18
(km/h)25
(km/h)14
(km/h)13
(km/h)24
(km/h)25
(km/h)19
(km/h)26
(km/h)16
(km/h)23
(km/h)21
(km/h)33
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW WSW WSW ENE ESE NNE WNW WSW SW SSW SSW WSW WSW Relative humidity 84% 69% 79% 66% 82% 48% 49% 49% 89% 71% 84% 68% 83% 65% Dew point 11°C 11°C 10°C 12°C 11°C 13°C 12°C 15°C 13°C 12°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Timboon West Rain Forecast
Timboon West 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
LOW10
11
LOW12
13
14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
19
LOW20
LOW21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Timboon West Rain Forecast
Timboon West 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2019202059655675566105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Timboon West Rain Forecast
Timboon West 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
LOW10
11
LOW12
13
14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
19
LOW20
LOW21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Timboon West Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 017.8 °C 14.3 °C 0.4 mmMonday
Dec 027.2 °C 14.0 °C 9.4 mmTuesday
Dec 038.5 °C 17.1 °C 2.8 mmWednesday
Dec 049.5 °C 17.8 °C 3.4 mmThursday
Dec 0511.9 °C 18 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Timboon West minimum temp history (38.5052°S, 142.9144°E, 62m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 18.0° 04/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.2° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 43.0 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 1.3 07/12/2006 Hottest this year 44.3° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.9° 24/06/2019 Long term average 22.7° Long term average 10.1° Average this month 15.8° Average this month 9.0° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.4° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.6° 2001 Timboon West rainfall history (38.5052°S, 142.9144°E, 62m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 9.4mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 16.0mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 47.2mm 12.1 days Wettest December on record 120.4mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Timboon West Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 739.8mm 193.9 day(s) Total For 2019 719.4mm 182.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 631.2mm 177.0 day(s) Wettest Day 29.8mm Mar30 Lowest Temperature -1.9°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 44.3°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Timboon West Climatology
Timboon West Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.5 24.8 23.2 20.0 16.5 14.1 13.5 14.4 16.1 18.1 20.4 22.7 19.1 Mean Min (°C) 11.8 12.4 10.9 8.9 7.4 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.3 9.0 10.1 8.5 Mean Rain (mm) 37.3 31.7 49.7 54.5 71.2 80.6 86.1 94.1 72.6 63.6 51.2 47.2 735.4 Mean Rain Days 9.1 8.7 12.8 15.3 20.5 20.2 21.9 21.7 19.7 18.2 13.7 12.1 180.0