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Forecast

The Heart (38.1013°S, 147.2136°E, 1m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Showers 16°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:29am EST 6:56am EST 5:36pm EST 6:03pm EST
    NOW
    12.6° Feels Like: 9.9°
    Relative Humidity: 88%
    Dew: 10.7°
    Wind: W 15km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1012.7hPa
  3. Today Weather

    The Heart
    Now
    12.9°c
    Feels Like:
    11.6°
    Wind:
    E 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    79%
    Showers
     
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Today in The Heart
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 1500 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges in the afternoon and evening. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 14.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 1500 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges in the afternoon and evening. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.

    Forecast for The Heart (38.1013°S, 147.2136°E, 1m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Showers Showers Mostly sunny Showers Showers Possible shower Showers
    Minimum
    Maximum 16° 15° 16° 18° 16° 14° 12°
    Chance of rain 80% 80% 50% 30% 60% 60% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Slight Nil Slight Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 7
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW SSW WSW WSW W W N WNW N NW WNW WNW WNW W
    Relative humidity 100% 89% 100% 85% 92% 59% 93% 61% 91% 71% 95% 68% 93% 74%
    Dew point 11°C 13°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 7°C 10°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 7°C 8°C 6°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    The Heart Rain Forecast


    The Heart 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    HIGH
    Sep 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    LOW
    10
    HIGH
    11
    HIGH
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, and 16 September to 20 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 August to 23 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 3 September to 7 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    The Heart Rain Forecast


    The Heart 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    2020
    2021
    6
    6
    6
    7
    7
    7
    8
    6
    5
    3
    9
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    The Heart Rain Forecast


    The Heart 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    HIGH
    Sep 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    LOW
    10
    HIGH
    11
    HIGH
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, and 16 September to 20 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 August to 23 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 3 September to 7 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    The Heart Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Aug 10
    3.7 °C 14.6 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Aug 11
    -0.1 °C 15.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 12
    4.0 °C 16.1 °C
    0.8 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 13
    5.8 °C 19.5 °C
    0.8 mm
    Friday
    Aug 14
    5.7 °C 18.2 °C
    3.8 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    The Heart minimum temp history (38.1013°S, 147.2136°E, 1m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 18.9° 02/08/2020 Coldest this month -0.1° 11/08/2020
    Hottest on record 28.3 25/08/1995 Coldest on record -5.6 26/08/1946
    Hottest this year 43.3° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -1.7° 09/06/2020
    Long term average 15.1° Long term average 4.1°
    Average this month 15.1° Average this month 3.8°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.7° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 2.0° 1971
    The Heart rainfall history (38.1013°S, 147.2136°E, 1m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.4mm 05/08/2020 Total This Month 12.0mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 46.2mm 16.5 days Wettest August on record 175.9mm 1951
    Driest on record 4.2mm 2002
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    The Heart Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 371.0mm 104.0 day(s)
    Total For 2020 393.2mm 101.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 231.8mm 81.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 35.2mm Jul13
    Lowest Temperature -1.7°C Jun 9
    Highest Temperature 43.3°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    The Heart Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.5 25.3 23.6 20.3 16.9 14.3 13.8 15.1 17.1 19.3 21.3 23.5 19.6
    Mean Min (°C) 12.9 13.2 11.6 8.6 6.2 4.2 3.3 4.1 5.6 7.5 9.6 11.3 8.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 44.8 42.5 48.7 49.0 50.2 48.2 41.4 46.2 50.9 57.2 62.9 54.2 596.1
    Mean Rain Days 8.7 8.2 10.3 12.7 14.9 16.6 16.1 16.5 15.2 14.4 12.3 10.5 154.8