Forecast
The Gurdies (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW12° 16° Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:17am EDT 5:48am EDT 8:35pm EDT 9:06pm EDT NOW14.7° Feels Like: 13.9° Relative Humidity: 83% Dew: 11.8° Wind: SW 7km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
The GurdiesNow14.7°cFeels Like:11.6°Wind:SSW 19km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:84%12°Min16°MaxToday in The GurdiesSlight chance of a light shower in the early morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the southeast in the early morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds S/SW 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before tending S/SE 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 22.Tomorrow12°Min16°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds S/SE 20 to 30 km/h tending S/SW 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for The Gurdies
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7 day forecast
Today: Slight chance of a light shower in the early morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the southeast in the early morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds S/SW 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before tending S/SE 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 22.
Forecast for The Gurdies (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 12° 11° 12° 11° 12° 12° 12° Maximum 16° 18° 18° 18° 19° 18° 19° Chance of rain 30% 50% 30% 60% 40% 20% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Very High Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)12
(km/h)2
(km/h)9
(km/h)7
(km/h)17
(km/h)7
(km/h)11
(km/h)12
(km/h)14
(km/h)8
(km/h)11
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)Wind direction SW SW SSW SW W SW WSW WSW WNW WSW W SW WSW SW Relative humidity 78% 62% 71% 67% 79% 64% 66% 61% 76% 69% 72% 61% 73% 62% Dew point 10°C 8°C 9°C 12°C 12°C 11°C 8°C 10°C 11°C 13°C 10°C 10°C 10°C 12°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
The Gurdies Rain Forecast
The Gurdies 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
MEDIUM10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
The Gurdies Rain Forecast
The Gurdies 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020356654743557105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
The Gurdies Rain Forecast
The Gurdies 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
MEDIUM10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
The Gurdies Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 0511.6 °C 19.7 °C 0.8 mmFriday
Dec 0612.3 °C 17.8 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 0712.0 °C 17.8 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0812.7 °C 20.6 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0914.2 °C 33 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
The Gurdies minimum temp history (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 21.0° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.4° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 38.2 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 0.7 24/12/1993 Hottest this year 37.6° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year 3.7° 24/06/2019 Long term average 21.8° Long term average 13.7° Average this month 17.8° Average this month 11.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.3° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.1° 1995 The Gurdies rainfall history (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.4mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 16.4mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 46.2mm 10.6 days Wettest December on record 79.2mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
The Gurdies Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 724.5mm 166.8 day(s) Total For 2019 640.2mm 170.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 580.2mm 170.0 day(s) Wettest Day 24.4mm Aug19 Lowest Temperature 3.7°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 37.6°C Jan 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
The Gurdies Climatology
The Gurdies Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 23.8 24.3 22.6 19.5 16.3 14.0 13.3 14.3 16.0 17.9 20.0 21.8 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 15.4 15.9 14.7 12.6 10.7 9.0 8.2 8.4 9.4 10.6 12.2 13.7 11.7 Mean Rain (mm) 38.8 44.1 40.7 62.4 75.7 68.8 72.5 78.6 68.9 64.7 63.1 46.2 725.0 Mean Rain Days 8.6 7.9 11.0 13.9 17.1 16.3 19.0 18.7 16.7 15.0 12.0 10.6 159.8