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Forecast

The Gurdies (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Windy with showers 12° 17°
    windy with showers
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:41am EST 6:08am EST 6:16pm EST 6:42pm EST
    NOW
    15.9° Feels Like: 11.9°
    Relative Humidity: 62%
    Dew: 8.6°
    Wind: N 19km/h
    Gust: 28km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure: 1002.5hPa

  3. Today Weather

    The Gurdies
    Now
    15.4°c
    Feels Like:
    13.1°
    Wind:
    NW 7km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    53%
    Windy with showers
     
    12°
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Today in The Gurdies
    Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Gusty winds. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 35 to 55 km/h during the morning and early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 17.
    Tomorrow
    Windy with showers
    12°
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h turning W in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 14.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Gusty winds. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 35 to 55 km/h during the morning and early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 17.

    Forecast for The Gurdies (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Windy with showers Showers Showers Showers Showers easing Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 12° 9° 8° 7° 8° 9° 9°
    Maximum 17° 14° 15° 14° 14° 14° 15°
    Chance of rain 80% 90% 80% 80% 90% 20% 20%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 31
    (km/h)     		36
    (km/h)     		27
    (km/h)     		25
    (km/h)     		17
    (km/h)     		12
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		14
    (km/h)     		25
    (km/h)     		26
    (km/h)     		14
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		2
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW NW WNW W WNW NW N WSW SW WSW SW SW NNE S
    Relative humidity 62% 62% 73% 64% 71% 53% 75% 64% 64% 60% 61% 56% 67% 56%
    Dew point 7°C 8°C 7°C 6°C 6°C 4°C 6°C 6°C 5°C 5°C 4°C 4°C 6°C 5°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    The Gurdies Rain Forecast

    The Gurdies 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    HIGH
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    HIGH
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    30
    Oct 1
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 September to 30 September, 11 October to 15 October, and 19 October to 23 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 9 October to 13 October, and 20 October to 24 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    The Gurdies Rain Forecast

    The Gurdies 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2020
    2021
    3
    8
    8
    7
    8
    8
    7
    5
    3
    8
    4
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 9

    ENSO status: La Niña Alert IOD status: Negative SAM status: Negative trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to cool through August, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.5. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 9.8 in the same month, a significant increase compared to July, tipping over the La Niña threshold of +7. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific during the Austral spring, with a high chance of a weak La Niña forming. All eight international models continue to suggest further cooling during spring, with three of these indicating La Niña conditions in September. A further two exceeding the La Niña threshold in October, with six of the eight indicating La Niña by November. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 57:41 chance for La Niña:Neutral conditions by the end of the Australspring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase. Four of the six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of the Austral spring, with the remaining two indicating a neutral phase. Both of the models that indicate a neutral phase trend towards the negative side of neutral. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short term outlook favours above average rainfall over the interior over the remainder of the first month of spring, particularly eastern WA and the Kimberley, western NT and western SA Above average rainfall is also favoured, although not as pronounced, over inland NSW and QLD and parts of the NSW and VIC coastal area. Drier than average conditions are expected across western WA as well as parts of northern coastal QLD and parts of the southeast. The remainder of spring is then likely to be wetter than average for NSW, QLD, VIC, SA, TAS, the NT and eastern WA, whilst drier than averageconditions look to persist further west. There are then indications of increased rainfall over WA toward the end of spring and into early summer, with the eastern two thirds of the country remaining wetter than average.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    The Gurdies Rain Forecast

    The Gurdies 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    HIGH
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    HIGH
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    30
    Oct 1
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 September to 30 September, 11 October to 15 October, and 19 October to 23 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 9 October to 13 October, and 20 October to 24 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    The Gurdies Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Sep 17     		11.9 °C 13.6 °C
    6.0 mm
    Friday
    Sep 18     		10.6 °C 19.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Saturday
    Sep 19     		11.0 °C 22.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Sep 20     		15.5 °C 20.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Sep 21     		13.6 °C 18.6 °C
    1.2 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    The Gurdies minimum temp history (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 22.1° 19/09/2020 Coldest this month 6.6° 01/09/2020
    Hottest on record 25.1 19/09/2011 Coldest on record -1.4 06/09/1994
    Hottest this year 37.7° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year 2.9° 05/08/2020
    Long term average 16.0° Long term average 9.4°
    Average this month 17.6° Average this month 10.5°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.0° 2001 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 7.1° 1992
    The Gurdies rainfall history (38.374°S, 145.5612°E, 11m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 35.2mm 13/09/2020 Total This Month 54.2mm
    14.0 days
    Long Term Average 68.9mm 16.7 days Wettest September on record 129.0mm 1996
    Driest on record 35.4mm 2001

  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    The Gurdies Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 550.5mm 129.2 day(s)
    Total For 2020 674.2mm 150.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 517.4mm 122.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 41.4mm Mar 5
    Lowest Temperature 2.9°C Aug 5
    Highest Temperature 37.7°C Jan31

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    The Gurdies Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 23.8 24.3 22.6 19.5 16.3 14.0 13.3 14.3 16.0 17.9 20.0 21.8 18.6
    Mean Min (°C) 15.4 15.9 14.7 12.6 10.7 9.0 8.2 8.4 9.4 10.6 12.2 13.7 11.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 38.8 44.1 40.7 62.4 75.7 68.8 72.5 78.6 68.9 64.7 63.1 46.2 725.0
    Mean Rain Days 8.6 7.9 11.0 13.9 17.1 16.3 19.0 18.7 16.7 15.0 12.0 10.6 159.8

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