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Forecast

Rumbug (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 10° 12°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    7:01am EST 7:30am EST 5:11pm EST 5:40pm EST
    NOW
    8.1° Feels Like: 7.4°
    Relative Humidity: 93%
    Dew: 7.0°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.4mm
    Pressure: 1028.3hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Rumbug
    Now
    8.2°c
    Feels Like:
    6.5°
    Wind:
    SE 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    97%
    Mostly sunny
     
    10°
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Today in Rumbug
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers about the ranges, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1300 metres. The chance of morning fog in the west. Winds SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 14.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium chance of showers. Snow possible above 1300 metres. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 14.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers about the ranges, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1300 metres. The chance of morning fog in the west. Winds SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 14.

    Forecast for Rumbug (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Showers increasing Showers easing Possible shower
    Minimum 10° 10°
    Maximum 12° 12° 12° 13° 13° 12° 11°
    Chance of rain 30% 20% 5% 20% 90% 70% 80%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 25
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SE SE S S NE NE N NNE NW WNW W WSW SW SW
    Relative humidity 79% 76% 77% 75% 79% 73% 79% 69% 75% 73% 74% 75% 72% 70%
    Dew point 8°C 8°C 7°C 7°C 5°C 8°C 6°C 8°C 6°C 8°C 6°C 8°C 5°C 5°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Rumbug Rain Forecast


    Rumbug 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 July to 31 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 July to 31 July, 1 August to 5 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Rumbug Rain Forecast


    Rumbug 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    4
    5
    6
    6
    6
    7
    7
    8
    6
    5
    3
    9
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Rumbug Rain Forecast


    Rumbug 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 July to 31 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 July to 31 July, 1 August to 5 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Rumbug Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Jul 10
    6.8 °C 12.1 °C
    0.2 mm
    Saturday
    Jul 11
    3.0 °C 14.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 12
    1.7 °C 14.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jul 13
    7.7 °C 14.5 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 14
    6.0 °C 13.5 °C
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Rumbug minimum temp history (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 17.6° 01/07/2020 Coldest this month 7.1° 04/07/2020
    Hottest on record 22.0 28/07/1975 Coldest on record 0.0 14/07/1966
    Hottest this year 35.0° 30/01/2020 Coldest this year 7.1° 04/07/2020
    Long term average 12.3° Long term average 8.7°
    Average this month 12.7° Average this month 9.6°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 14.9° 1975 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 5.4° 1958
    Rumbug rainfall history (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 30.4mm 03/07/2020 Total This Month 62.6mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 123.2mm 19.4 days Wettest July on record 338.8mm 1995
    Driest on record 19.6mm 1899
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Rumbug Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 609.9mm 102.1 day(s)
    Total For 2020 702.2mm 104.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 539.0mm 84.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 37.6mm May 2
    Lowest Temperature 7.1°C Jul 4
    Highest Temperature 35.0°C Jan30
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Rumbug Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 20.6 20.7 19.5 17.4 15.1 13.1 12.3 12.7 14.2 15.9 17.3 18.8 16.5
    Mean Min (°C) 14.6 15.3 14.7 13.1 11.5 9.8 8.7 8.7 9.4 10.4 11.7 13.0 11.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 51.8 46.8 69.7 83.9 114.0 120.5 123.2 121.9 98.6 92.2 71.2 64.2 1057.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.9 9.1 12.1 14.9 17.8 18.9 19.4 19.6 17.7 16.1 13.4 12.0 178.3