Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Damaging Winds
for parts of Central, South West and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:01 am Wednesday, 27 January 2021.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
Weather Situation
A high pressure system moving to the south of Victoria will result in easterly winds strengthening on Wednesday evening.
DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Central, South West and West and South Gippsland
DAMAGING EASTERLY WINDS, averaging 40 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 80 to 90 km/h developing from late Wednesday about parts of southern Victoria and the Grampians. The strongest gusts are most likely about the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Port Phillip and the Surf Coast, and most likely to occur in the period around midnight.
Winds are mostly expected to ease by sunrise on Thursday, however strong gusts may continue to be experienced about Wilsons Prom and Cape Otway during the day on Thursday.
Locations which may be affected include Wonthaggi, Frankston, Rosebud, Warragul, Moe and Wilsons Prom.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEDT Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Robin Hood (38.0922°S, 145.8402°E, 72m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY9° 23° Chance of rain: 60% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:54am EDT 6:23am EDT 8:34pm EDT 9:03pm EDT NOW23.5° Feels Like: 19.7° Relative Humidity: 44% Dew: 10.6° Wind: SE 20km/h Gust: 37km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.9hPa -
Today Weather
Robin HoodNow23.6°cFeels Like:20.4°Wind:SE 18km/hGusts:33km/hHumidity:46%9°Min23°MaxToday in Robin HoodMostly sunny. Medium chance of showers about the ranges, slight chance elsewhere. Winds SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending E 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 23.Tomorrow14°Min23°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds E 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 24. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers about the ranges, slight chance elsewhere. Winds SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending E 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 23.
Forecast for Robin Hood (38.0922°S, 145.8402°E, 72m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 9° 14° 14° 16° 13° 15° 14° Maximum 23° 23° 22° 24° 25° 29° 20° Chance of rain 60% 70% 90% 80% 40% 70% 80% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 7
(km/h)19
(km/h)16
(km/h)20
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)11
(km/h)6
(km/h)9
(km/h)5
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction SSE ESE E E E ENE WNW WSW SSW SSW NNW W W WSW Relative humidity 72% 44% 76% 58% 91% 90% 92% 77% 91% 63% 82% 67% 86% 71% Dew point 9°C 10°C 13°C 14°C 16°C 20°C 17°C 20°C 14°C 16°C 19°C 22°C 14°C 14°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Robin Hood Rain Forecast
Robin Hood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT27
LOW28
LOW29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
LOWFeb 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
10
11
12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
HIGH15
MEDIUM16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan27Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Robin Hood Rain Forecast
Robin Hood 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20211098656744664105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Robin Hood Rain Forecast
Robin Hood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT27
LOW28
LOW29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
LOWFeb 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
10
11
12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
HIGH15
MEDIUM16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan27Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Robin Hood Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Jan 219.3 °C 31.7 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Jan 2212.4 °C 27.2 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Jan 23- - -Sunday
Jan 24- - -Monday
Jan 25- - -Legend -
Almanac
Almanac
Robin Hood minimum temp history (38.0922°S, 145.8402°E, 72m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.2° 25/01/2021 Coldest this month 4.3° 20/01/2021 Hottest on record 43.4 29/01/2009 Coldest on record 0.9 03/01/2009 Hottest this year 39.2° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 4.3° 20/01/2021 Long term average 28.1° Long term average 11.9° Average this month 27.4° Average this month 12.2° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.2° 2009 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 8.8° 2004 Robin Hood rainfall history (38.0922°S, 145.8402°E, 72m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 30.2mm 26/01/2021 Total This Month 84.6mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 45.4mm 8.9 days Wettest January on record 75.2mm 2011 Driest on record 3.6mm 2013 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Robin Hood Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 45.4mm 8.9 day(s) Total For 2021 84.6mm 8.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 118.0mm 10.0 day(s) Wettest Day 30.2mm Jan26 Lowest Temperature 4.3°C Jan20 Highest Temperature 39.2°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Robin Hood Climatology
Robin Hood Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.1 27.8 25.3 20.8 16.7 14.1 13.5 14.7 17.3 19.9 22.8 25.3 20.5 Mean Min (°C) 11.9 12.0 9.9 7.0 5.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 5.5 6.8 8.9 9.9 7.5 Mean Rain (mm) 45.4 54.7 49.5 58.4 70.2 65.0 61.8 71.9 69.3 68.1 72.2 60.9 745.5 Mean Rain Days 8.9 7.4 9.0 12.4 16.3 17.9 18.7 18.9 15.1 14.1 12.2 10.5 161.2