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Forecast

Osbornes Flat (36.3071°S, 146.903°E, 218m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly cloudy 1° 10°
    mostly cloudy
    Chance of rain: 40%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:57am EST 7:25am EST 5:10pm EST 5:39pm EST
    NOW
    8.5° Feels Like: 4.6°
    Relative Humidity: 95%
    Dew: 7.7°
    Wind: WNW 17km/h
    Gust: 17km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 9.2mm
    Pressure: 1017.0hPa

  3. Today Weather

    Osbornes Flat
    Now
    8.0°c
    Feels Like:
    4.2°
    Wind:
    W 17km/h
    Gusts:
    26km/h
    Humidity:
    99%
    Mostly cloudy
     
    1°
    Min
    10°
    Max
    Today in Osbornes Flat
    Areas of severe frost and patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 800 metres, rising to 1500 metres during the day. Possible hail in the south in the early morning. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/SW early in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 1 and 1 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 5 and 11.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly cloudy
    1°
    Min
    10°
    Max
    Areas of morning fog. Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south, slight chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 13.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Areas of severe frost and patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 800 metres, rising to 1500 metres during the day. Possible hail in the south in the early morning. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/SW early in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 1 and 1 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 5 and 11.

    Forecast for Osbornes Flat (36.3071°S, 146.903°E, 218m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly cloudy Fog then sunny Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Mostly sunny Frost then sunny
    Minimum 1° 4° 0° 0° -1° 1° 0°
    Maximum 10° 12° 13° 13° 13° 13° 13°
    Chance of rain 40% 20% 5% 5% 5% 10% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low - - -
    Frost risk High Slight High High Severe High High
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 7
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW W WSW WSW S WSW SSE WSW E NE ENE N ENE NNE
    Relative humidity 95% 84% 96% 77% 88% 71% 86% 69% 80% 69% 82% 72% 83% 70%
    Dew point 4°C 7°C 5°C 8°C 2°C 8°C 3°C 7°C 2°C 8°C 5°C 8°C 3°C 8°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Osbornes Flat Rain Forecast

    Osbornes Flat 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    HIGH
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    HIGH
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Osbornes Flat Rain Forecast

    Osbornes Flat 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2020
    2021
    5
    4
    6
    6
    6
    8
    6
    8
    7
    4
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Osbornes Flat Rain Forecast

    Osbornes Flat 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    HIGH
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    HIGH
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Osbornes Flat Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jun 29     		4.6 °C 12.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 30     		4.4 °C 15.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 01     		7.3 °C 17.0 °C
    0.2 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 02     		10.0 °C 13.1 °C
    1.8 mm
    Friday
    Jul 03     		5.2 °C -
    1.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Osbornes Flat minimum temp history (36.3071°S, 146.903°E, 218m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 17.0° 01/07/2020 Coldest this month 7.3° 01/07/2020
    Hottest on record 21.3 28/07/1975 Coldest on record -2.8 26/07/1986
    Hottest this year 45.5° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year 1.0° 24/05/2020
    Long term average 12.4° Long term average 4.4°
    Average this month 17.0° Average this month 8.6°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 14.0° 2013 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 1.9° 1982
    Osbornes Flat rainfall history (36.3071°S, 146.903°E, 218m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 1.8mm 02/07/2020 Total This Month 3.0mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 76.9mm 16.6 days Wettest July on record 191.8mm 1986
    Driest on record 17.0mm 1982

  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Osbornes Flat Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 391.3mm 66.0 day(s)
    Total For 2020 456.6mm 77.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 238.9mm 65.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 79.6mm Mar 5
    Lowest Temperature 1.0°C May24
    Highest Temperature 45.5°C Jan31

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Osbornes Flat Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.0 30.7 27.3 22.0 17.0 13.3 12.4 14.2 17.2 21.1 25.2 28.4 21.6
    Mean Min (°C) 17.1 17.2 14.2 10.4 7.5 5.2 4.4 5.2 6.9 9.3 12.1 14.6 10.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 46.3 43.0 45.7 52.4 59.0 68.0 76.9 76.0 62.0 67.7 53.2 49.2 699.0
    Mean Rain Days 5.5 5.4 5.9 7.2 11.2 14.2 16.6 14.9 11.4 10.2 8.1 6.6 116.2

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