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Forecast

Orbost (37.7073°S, 148.4549°E, 14m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Hazy 13° 26°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:47am EDT 6:16am EDT 8:22pm EDT 8:51pm EDT
    NOW
    21.6° Feels Like: 21.4°
    Relative Humidity: 66%
    Dew: 15.0°
    Wind: SSE 9km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1016.7hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Orbost
    Now
    22.4°c
    Feels Like:
    22.3°
    Wind:
    ESE 7km/h
    Gusts:
    15km/h
    Humidity:
    60%
    Hazy
     
    13°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Today in Orbost
    Mostly sunny. Patchy fog early this morning. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 25 to 30.
    Tomorrow
    Hazy
    15°
    Min
    36°
    Max
    Patchy fog in the early morning. Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 37.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Orbost

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Patchy fog early this morning. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 25 to 30.

    Forecast for Orbost (37.7073°S, 148.4549°E, 14m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Hazy Hazy Sunny Showers Clearing shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 13° 15° 18° 25° 14° 14° 11°
    Maximum 26° 36° 40° 39° 21° 20° 21°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 30% 70% 50% 50% 40%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 2
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW S NNE S NNE SE N WSW SW SW W SW WNW SSE
    Relative humidity 76% 59% 68% 33% 57% 26% 51% 35% 92% 70% 71% 57% 71% 56%
    Dew point 14°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 16°C 18°C 19°C 20°C 14°C 13°C 11°C 10°C 9°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Orbost Rain Forecast


    Orbost 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Orbost Rain Forecast


    Orbost 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    7
    7
    9
    3
    5
    6
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Orbost Rain Forecast


    Orbost 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Orbost Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jan 25
    - 27.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 26
    13.8 °C 26.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jan 27
    15.5 °C 23.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 28
    16.6 °C 23.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 29
    11.6 °C 24 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Orbost minimum temp history (37.7073°S, 148.4549°E, 14m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 41.2° 04/01/2020 Coldest this month 9.7° 13/01/2020
    Hottest on record 43.3 17/01/2014 Coldest on record 6.0 19/01/2004
    Hottest this year 41.2° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year 9.7° 13/01/2020
    Long term average 26.4° Long term average 14.7°
    Average this month 25.5° Average this month 14.3°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.1° 2001 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 13.3° 2004
    Orbost rainfall history (37.7073°S, 148.4549°E, 14m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 523.4mm 23/01/2020 Total This Month 560.6mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 43.4mm 9.0 days Wettest January on record 87.0mm 2001
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Orbost Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 43.4mm 9.0 day(s)
    Total For 2020 560.6mm 6.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 27.4mm 10.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 523.4mm Jan23
    Lowest Temperature 9.7°C Jan13
    Highest Temperature 41.2°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Orbost Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.4 25.4 24.0 20.9 17.8 15.3 15.0 16.0 18.2 20.0 22.1 24.0 20.5
    Mean Min (°C) 14.7 14.6 13.1 10.7 8.4 6.5 5.6 6.1 7.7 9.1 11.4 12.8 10.1
    Mean Rain (mm) 43.4 57.1 56.1 83.3 83.8 109.4 64.3 62.6 61.2 62.9 82.9 69.6 836.0
    Mean Rain Days 9.0 9.5 11.3 13.9 15.4 16.7 16.1 14.4 14.8 12.9 10.7 11.2 143.0