Forecast
Nilma North (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY18° 29° late shower Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:53am EDT 7:19am EDT 7:29pm EDT 7:55pm EDT NOW27.8° Feels Like: 26.8° Relative Humidity: 45% Dew: 14.8° Wind: NW 13km/h Gust: 26km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1007.5hPa -
Today Weather
Nilma NorthNow29.7°cFeels Like:27.6°Wind:N 19km/hGusts:26km/hHumidity:40%18°Min29°MaxToday in Nilma NorthBecoming cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 25 to 32.Tomorrow11°Min15°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds W/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 19. -
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Nilma North
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7 day forecast
Today: Becoming cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 25 to 32.
Forecast for Nilma North (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 18° 11° 8° 8° 10° 9° 8° Maximum 29° 15° 19° 20° 19° 19° 21° Chance of rain 90% 70% 10% 10% 5% 5% 80% Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)20
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)5
(km/h)7
(km/h)3
(km/h)11
(km/h)3
(km/h)9
(km/h)7
(km/h)13
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NNW W WSW E SSE NNE WSW SE SW NW W NW W Relative humidity 64% 51% 78% 48% 72% 45% 81% 45% 86% 53% 83% 54% 75% 50% Dew point 16°C 17°C 8°C 4°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 10°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Nilma North Rain Forecast
Nilma North 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Nilma North Rain Forecast
Nilma North 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025565653756378105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Nilma North Rain Forecast
Nilma North 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Nilma North Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1514.9 °C 23.1 °C 0.4 mmSaturday
Mar 1612.5 °C 27.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1712.8 °C 29.1 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1813.7 °C 29.3 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1915.5 °C 32.0 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Nilma North minimum temp history (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.1° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 8.5° 04/03/2024 Hottest on record Coldest on record Hottest this year 37.1° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 5.5° 07/02/2024 Long term average 24.1° Long term average 12.3° Average this month 27.7° Average this month 13.4° Hottest - On Record Avg. max. temp. - - Coldest - on record Avg. min. temp. - - Nilma North rainfall history (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.6mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 3.0mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 54.1mm 10.8 days Wettest - on record - - Driest on record 28.6mm 2017 -
Year to Date
Nilma North Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 154.9mm 31.2 day(s) Total For 2024 102.6mm 23.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 90.2mm 26.0 day(s) Wettest Day 34.4mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 5.5°C Feb 7 Highest Temperature 37.1°C Mar 9 -
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Climatology
Climate History
Nilma North Climatology
Nilma North Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.5 26.0 24.1 20.1 16.3 13.6 13.2 14.0 16.7 19.4 21.4 24.3 19.6 Mean Min (°C) 14.0 13.1 12.3 9.5 6.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 6.5 8.3 10.2 12.0 8.9 Mean Rain (mm) 56.8 44.0 54.1 70.9 83.6 84.2 82.6 110.0 82.7 103.9 96.3 67.2 932.8 Mean Rain Days 10.8 9.6 10.8 13.8 18.1 18.7 20.3 20.1 17.0 15.8 14.9 12.9 182.3