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Forecast

Nilma North (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Late shower 18° 29°
    late shower
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 20-40mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:53am EDT 7:19am EDT 7:29pm EDT 7:55pm EDT
    NOW
    27.8° Feels Like: 26.8°
    Relative Humidity: 45%
    Dew: 14.8°
    Wind: NW 13km/h
    Gust: 26km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1007.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Nilma North
    Now
    29.7°c
    Feels Like:
    27.6°
    Wind:
    N 19km/h
    Gusts:
    26km/h
    Humidity:
    40%
    Late shower
     
    18°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Today in Nilma North
    Becoming cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 25 to 32.
    Tomorrow
    Showers easing
    11°
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds W/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 19.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Nilma North

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Becoming cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 25 to 32.

    Forecast for Nilma North (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Late shower Showers easing Mostly sunny Fog then sunny Mostly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 18° 11° 10°
    Maximum 29° 15° 19° 20° 19° 19° 21°
    Chance of rain 90% 70% 10% 10% 5% 5% 80%
    Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High High High High High High High
    Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate No Rating - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 11
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ENE NNW W WSW E SSE NNE WSW SE SW NW W NW W
    Relative humidity 64% 51% 78% 48% 72% 45% 81% 45% 86% 53% 83% 54% 75% 50%
    Dew point 16°C 17°C 8°C 4°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 10°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Nilma North Rain Forecast


    Nilma North 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Nilma North Rain Forecast


    Nilma North 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2024
    2025
    5
    6
    5
    6
    5
    3
    7
    5
    6
    3
    7
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Mar 5

    ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Nilma North Rain Forecast


    Nilma North 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Nilma North Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Mar 15
    14.9 °C 23.1 °C
    0.4 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 16
    12.5 °C 27.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 17
    12.8 °C 29.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Mar 18
    13.7 °C 29.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Mar 19
    15.5 °C 32.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Nilma North minimum temp history (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.1° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 8.5° 04/03/2024
    Hottest on record Coldest on record
    Hottest this year 37.1° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 5.5° 07/02/2024
    Long term average 24.1° Long term average 12.3°
    Average this month 27.7° Average this month 13.4°
    Hottest - On Record Avg. max. temp. - - Coldest - on record Avg. min. temp. - -
    Nilma North rainfall history (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 1.6mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 3.0mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 54.1mm 10.8 days Wettest - on record - -
    Driest on record 28.6mm 2017
  15. Year to Date

    Nilma North Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 154.9mm 31.2 day(s)
    Total For 2024 102.6mm 23.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2023 90.2mm 26.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 34.4mm Jan 8
    Lowest Temperature 5.5°C Feb 7
    Highest Temperature 37.1°C Mar 9
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Nilma North Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.5 26.0 24.1 20.1 16.3 13.6 13.2 14.0 16.7 19.4 21.4 24.3 19.6
    Mean Min (°C) 14.0 13.1 12.3 9.5 6.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 6.5 8.3 10.2 12.0 8.9
    Mean Rain (mm) 56.8 44.0 54.1 70.9 83.6 84.2 82.6 110.0 82.7 103.9 96.3 67.2 932.8
    Mean Rain Days 10.8 9.6 10.8 13.8 18.1 18.7 20.3 20.1 17.0 15.8 14.9 12.9 182.3