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Forecast

Nilma North (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 17°
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:53am EST 7:21am EST 5:06pm EST 5:35pm EST
    NOW
    7.7° Feels Like: 6.4°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 7.7°
    Wind: ENE 4km/h
    Gust: 4km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Nilma North
    Now
    2.1°c
    Feels Like:
    0.4°
    Wind:
    CAL 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    97%
    Sunny
     
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Today in Nilma North
    Areas of fog and frost this morning, otherwise a mostly sunny day. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending N/NW 25 to 35 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 12 and 18.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds N/NW 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 17.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Areas of fog and frost this morning, otherwise a mostly sunny day. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending N/NW 25 to 35 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 12 and 18.

    Forecast for Nilma North (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Sunny Showers Showers Showers Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 17° 15° 14° 12° 13° 13° 13°
    Chance of rain 50% 50% 90% 80% 20% 5% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Low - -
    Frost risk Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil Slight Moderate
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE NNE NNW NNW NNW WNW WNW WNW WSW SW NE SW NNW NW
    Relative humidity 79% 52% 82% 71% 84% 81% 93% 84% 91% 77% 83% 72% 73% 64%
    Dew point 7°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 6°C 8°C 4°C 6°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Nilma North Rain Forecast


    Nilma North 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Jun 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued May29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 June to 24 June, 25 June to 29 June, and 29 June to 3 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 20 June to 24 June, and 29 June to 3 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Nilma North Rain Forecast


    Nilma North 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    2020
    2021
    7
    6
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    5
    7
    8
    6
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued May 13

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout April with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.5. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -0.5 during the same month. The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the end of autumn and early winter, potentially cooling by the second half of the austral winter. Eight out of eight international models continue to suggest a cooling trend of the NINO3.4 region throughout the Austral winter, with all models on the cooler side of neutral by September. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggests a 40:35 chance for neutral:La Nina conditions by the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six main international models, however, continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing from mid-to-late winter. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current medium term outlook continues to favour above average rainfall for most of the country. This outlook is mainly driven by warmer SSTs across northwestern Australia, enhanced soil moisture across some parts of the continent and early indications of a cool phase in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the moisture content across the northern tropics. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania the outlook is for average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tasmania) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This doesn’t include any severe weather events like east coast lows.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Nilma North Rain Forecast


    Nilma North 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Jun 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued May29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 June to 24 June, 25 June to 29 June, and 29 June to 3 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 20 June to 24 June, and 29 June to 3 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Nilma North Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    May 25
    3.4 °C 14.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    May 26
    6.4 °C 14.5 °C
    0.2 mm
    Wednesday
    May 27
    5.9 °C 18.1 °C
    0.2 mm
    Thursday
    May 28
    5.5 °C 16.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    May 29
    1.8 °C 17.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Nilma North minimum temp history (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 21.8° 07/05/2020 Coldest this month 0.2° 16/05/2020
    Hottest on record 26.7 01/05/1997 Coldest on record -2.6 24/05/2008
    Hottest this year 42.7° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year 0.2° 16/05/2020
    Long term average 16.9° Long term average 6.5°
    Average this month 15.8° Average this month 4.8°
    Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.9° 2007 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 3.4° 1984
    Nilma North rainfall history (38.145°S, 145.9862°E, 105m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 40.4mm 02/05/2020 Total This Month 80.0mm
    17.0 days
    Long Term Average 54.1mm 17.7 days Wettest May on record 138.0mm 1988
    Driest on record 11.4mm 2001
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Nilma North Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To May 255.1mm 61.8 day(s)
    Total For 2020 413.2mm 77.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 141.2mm 49.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 40.4mm May 2
    Lowest Temperature 0.2°C May16
    Highest Temperature 42.7°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Nilma North Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.6 26.6 24.5 20.5 16.9 14.2 13.6 14.9 17.0 19.6 22.0 24.3 20.1
    Mean Min (°C) 12.8 12.9 11.3 8.7 6.5 4.5 3.8 4.4 5.9 7.4 9.5 11.2 8.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 48.8 46.0 48.5 57.7 54.1 63.9 65.3 65.4 74.2 72.3 74.4 66.5 735.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.4 8.8 11.6 14.3 17.7 20.1 21.1 19.8 17.5 15.4 13.2 12.3 177.6