Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for Central forecast district
Issued at 10:50 PM EDT on Tuesday 19 March 2024
Warnings for Wednesday 20 March
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
Central forecast district
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures and southwesterly winds are expected during Wednesday morning. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the Central forecast district. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Wednesday.
Forecast
Moorabbin (37.9335°S, 145.0385°E, 28m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW12° 18° clearing shower Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:57am EDT 7:23am EDT 7:31pm EDT 7:57pm EDT NOW17.1° Feels Like: 13.0° Relative Humidity: 88% Dew: 15.1° Wind: SW 30km/h Gust: 43km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.8hPa -
Today Weather
MoorabbinNow19.0°cFeels Like:16.8°Wind:SW 15km/hGusts:28km/hHumidity:65%12°Min18°MaxToday in MoorabbinPartly cloudy. High chance of showers about the Dandenongs, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.Tomorrow12°Min18°MaxMostly sunny. Winds SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers about the Dandenongs, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.
Forecast for Moorabbin (37.9335°S, 145.0385°E, 28m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 9° 8° 11° 10° 10° 13° Maximum 18° 22° 23° 22° 21° 25° 19° Chance of rain 30% 5% 10% 20% 5% 60% 50% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)32
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)8
(km/h)19
(km/h)10
(km/h)22
(km/h)15
(km/h)21
(km/h)19
(km/h)24
(km/h)17
(km/h)23
(km/h)Wind direction WSW SW E S NNE SW SSE SSW WNW WSW NW W WSW SW Relative humidity 58% 46% 59% 44% 78% 49% 76% 53% 70% 48% 72% 48% 68% 48% Dew point 7°C 5°C 6°C 8°C 9°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 9°C 8°C 10°C 11°C 10°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Moorabbin Rain Forecast
Moorabbin 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Moorabbin Rain Forecast
Moorabbin 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025553654756677105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Moorabbin Rain Forecast
Moorabbin 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Moorabbin Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1515.4 °C 26.8 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1611.8 °C 29.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1714.1 °C 29.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1814.0 °C 31.2 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1916.6 °C 30.4 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Moorabbin minimum temp history (37.9335°S, 145.0385°E, 28m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 38.1° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 9.2° 05/03/2024 Hottest on record 40.8 08/03/2016 Coldest on record 2.9 13/03/1993 Hottest this year 38.2° 13/02/2024 Coldest this year 9.2° 05/03/2024 Long term average 23.8° Long term average 13.1° Average this month 27.5° Average this month 14.8° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.0° 2017 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 10.9° 1987 Moorabbin rainfall history (37.9335°S, 145.0385°E, 28m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.2mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 4.2mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 44.5mm 9.4 days Wettest March on record 129.6mm 1970 Driest on record 5.4mm 1951 -
Year to Date
Moorabbin Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 134.3mm 24.2 day(s) Total For 2024 168.4mm 18.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 58.4mm 19.0 day(s) Wettest Day 47.4mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 9.2°C Mar 5 Highest Temperature 38.2°C Feb13 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Moorabbin Climatology
Moorabbin Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.0 26.0 23.8 20.2 17.1 14.3 13.8 14.9 17.1 19.3 21.7 24.0 19.9 Mean Min (°C) 14.4 14.4 13.1 10.6 8.7 6.7 6.2 7.0 8.1 9.4 11.2 12.8 10.2 Mean Rain (mm) 45.2 44.6 44.5 62.3 67.2 56.5 60.7 65.3 63.3 71.0 64.7 60.9 701.8 Mean Rain Days 7.8 7.0 9.4 11.7 15.1 15.6 17.4 17.2 14.4 13.9 12.3 10.2 151.3