Forecast
Lyons (38.006°S, 141.5037°E, 68m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 18° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:35am EDT 6:06am EDT 8:51pm EDT 9:22pm EDT NOW12.4° Feels Like: 10.1° Relative Humidity: 73% Dew: 7.7° Wind: SW 9km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
LyonsNow12.3°cFeels Like:7.8°Wind:SW 20km/hGusts:26km/hHumidity:73%10°Min18°MaxToday in LyonsCloudy. Medium chance of light showers or drizzle near the Otways, slight chance elsewhere. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.Tomorrow9°Min20°MaxCloudy. Medium chance of light showers in the south from the late morning, slight chance in the evening elsewhere. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Lyons
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of light showers or drizzle near the Otways, slight chance elsewhere. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.
Forecast for Lyons (38.006°S, 141.5037°E, 68m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 10° 9° 11° 9° 11° 14° 15° Maximum 18° 20° 22° 26° 32° 35° 35° Chance of rain 20% 40% 20% 20% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)17
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)6
(km/h)10
(km/h)11
(km/h)11
(km/h)7
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction SW SW W WSW W W NW W N SW NNE SSW SE SSW Relative humidity 84% 63% 87% 68% 91% 57% 88% 41% 74% 35% 60% 32% 66% 33% Dew point 11°C 11°C 12°C 14°C 13°C 13°C 13°C 12°C 13°C 14°C 16°C 17°C 18°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lyons Rain Forecast
Lyons 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
LOW14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
6
7
8
LOW9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lyons Rain Forecast
Lyons 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020476664657666105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Lyons Rain Forecast
Lyons 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
LOW14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
6
7
8
LOW9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Lyons Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 076.5 °C 19.7 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Dec 085.8 °C 33.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0914.7 °C 28.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1010.4 °C 19.8 °C 0.6 mmWednesday
Dec 118.3 °C 20 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lyons minimum temp history (38.006°S, 141.5037°E, 68m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 24.1° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.0° 11/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.9 31/12/2007 Coldest on record 0.9 07/12/2006 Hottest this year 42.5° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -0.7° 24/06/2019 Long term average 20.3° Long term average 10.9° Average this month 17.5° Average this month 10.0° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.1° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.5° 1996 Lyons rainfall history (38.006°S, 141.5037°E, 68m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.2mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 22.8mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 50.1mm 13.3 days Wettest December on record 125.0mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Lyons Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 835.4mm 211.3 day(s) Total For 2019 750.8mm 205.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 837.4mm 195.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.4mm Jul11 Lowest Temperature -0.7°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 42.5°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Lyons Climatology
Lyons Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.0 22.5 21.1 18.5 15.9 13.7 13.1 14.0 15.2 16.9 18.7 20.3 17.6 Mean Min (°C) 12.3 12.8 11.8 9.9 8.4 7.0 6.3 6.7 7.5 8.3 9.9 10.9 9.3 Mean Rain (mm) 37.2 27.9 47.4 59.6 82.2 111.6 111.9 106.9 86.7 61.6 52.3 50.1 835.3 Mean Rain Days 10.9 8.9 13.7 18.1 21.4 23.0 24.4 23.6 20.7 18.6 14.7 13.3 205.4