Forecast
Lower Crawford (37.9816°S, 141.4577°E, 47m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY19° 30° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:35am EDT 6:06am EDT 8:48pm EDT 9:20pm EDT NOW24.0° Feels Like: 19.2° Relative Humidity: 22% Dew: 1.0° Wind: NNE 15km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Lower CrawfordNow19.5°cFeels Like:14.8°Wind:N 19km/hGusts:26km/hHumidity:40%19°Min30°MaxToday in Lower CrawfordBecoming cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with little significant rainfall in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NE 25 to 40 km/h shifting cooler SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 36.Tomorrow10°Min20°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the coast, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending S/SE 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 23. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
There are no current warnings for Lower Crawford
-
7 day forecast
Today: Becoming cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with little significant rainfall in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NE 25 to 40 km/h shifting cooler SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 36.
Forecast for Lower Crawford (37.9816°S, 141.4577°E, 47m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 19° 10° 7° 10° 9° 11° 10° Maximum 30° 20° 22° 19° 19° 20° 21° Chance of rain 50% 5% 40% 30% 60% 60% 30% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)18
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)8
(km/h)14
(km/h)13
(km/h)17
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)14
(km/h)20
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction N WSW SSW SSW S SSW SW SW WSW WSW W W W WSW Relative humidity 48% 51% 86% 55% 85% 56% 91% 60% 84% 57% 95% 69% 92% 59% Dew point 12°C 15°C 10°C 11°C 11°C 13°C 13°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 15°C 14°C 13°C 13°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lower Crawford Rain Forecast
Lower Crawford 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
LOW10
11
LOW12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
MEDIUM18
LOW19
LOW20
21
22
LOW23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
LOW6
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lower Crawford Rain Forecast
Lower Crawford 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020476664657666105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Lower Crawford Rain Forecast
Lower Crawford 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
LOW10
11
LOW12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
MEDIUM18
LOW19
LOW20
21
22
LOW23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
LOW6
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Lower Crawford Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Dec 0410.0 °C 19.2 °C 0.2 mmThursday
Dec 0511.9 °C 19.5 °C 0.2 mmFriday
Dec 0611.4 °C 17.9 °C 0.4 mmSaturday
Dec 076.5 °C 19.7 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Dec 085.8 °C 31 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lower Crawford minimum temp history (37.9816°S, 141.4577°E, 47m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 17.0° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.3° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.9 31/12/2007 Coldest on record 0.9 07/12/2006 Hottest this year 42.5° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -0.7° 24/06/2019 Long term average 20.3° Long term average 10.9° Average this month 15.8° Average this month 9.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.1° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.5° 1996 Lower Crawford rainfall history (37.9816°S, 141.4577°E, 47m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.2mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 21.2mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 50.1mm 13.3 days Wettest December on record 125.0mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
-
Year to Date
Lower Crawford Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 835.4mm 211.3 day(s) Total For 2019 749.2mm 204.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 837.4mm 195.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.4mm Jul11 Lowest Temperature -0.7°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 42.5°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Lower Crawford Climatology
Lower Crawford Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.0 22.5 21.1 18.5 15.9 13.7 13.1 14.0 15.2 16.9 18.7 20.3 17.6 Mean Min (°C) 12.3 12.8 11.8 9.9 8.4 7.0 6.3 6.7 7.5 8.3 9.9 10.9 9.3 Mean Rain (mm) 37.2 27.9 47.4 59.6 82.2 111.6 111.9 106.9 86.7 61.6 52.3 50.1 835.3 Mean Rain Days 10.9 8.9 13.7 18.1 21.4 23.0 24.4 23.6 20.7 18.6 14.7 13.3 205.4