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Forecast

Loch Valley (37.7964°S, 146.0102°E, 476m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Clearing shower 19°
    clearing shower
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:36am EST 7:04am EST 5:21pm EST 5:49pm EST
    NOW
    11.7° Feels Like: 12.2°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 11.7°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm
    Pressure: 1017.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Loch Valley
    Now
    9.9°c
    Feels Like:
    9.9°
    Wind:
    N 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    99%
    Clearing shower
     
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Today in Loch Valley
    Partly cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending N/NW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 20.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    12°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. Snow falling above 1300 metres late in the day. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h turning W/SW in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 19.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Loch Valley

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending N/NW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 20.

    Forecast for Loch Valley (37.7964°S, 146.0102°E, 476m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Clearing shower Showers Cloudy Mostly sunny Possible shower Showers Possible shower
    Minimum 12°
    Maximum 19° 16° 14° 18° 19° 16° 15°
    Chance of rain 60% 80% 40% 5% 70% 70% 60%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Low Low Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 5
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW NW NNW W SSE SE NE ESE N NNW WNW W WSW SW
    Relative humidity 87% 73% 75% 91% 88% 71% 79% 61% 75% 61% 88% 76% 85% 73%
    Dew point 12°C 14°C 12°C 12°C 8°C 9°C 7°C 10°C 10°C 11°C 9°C 12°C 9°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Loch Valley Rain Forecast


    Loch Valley 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    MEDIUM
    Jun 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued May 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 6 June to 10 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 May to 17 May, and 17 May to 21 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 May to 25 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 8 June to 12 June.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Loch Valley Rain Forecast


    Loch Valley 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    2021
    2022
    7
    7
    6
    6
    7
    6
    6
    5
    4
    8
    6
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Apr 14

    ENSO status: Neutral. IOD status: Neutral, potentially trending negative during winter. SAM status: Positive. La Niña has concluded, with neutral conditions expected until at least the end of Autumn. A few models are predicting La Niña conditions to return later this year, while the majority of models predict neutral conditions. While La Niña has returned to neutral, the oceans around northern Australia are warmer than normal. This is expected to generate above normal rainfall for much of Australia during the next month or so. Some models are suggesting a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may develop during winter, which would increase rainfall across parts of Australia during winter. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northern coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC, most of TAS and southwest WA are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to bewetter than normal, apart from far southwestern WA, southern VIC and much of TAS. The negative IOD may be playing a part in this, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across Australia's snowfields. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Loch Valley Rain Forecast


    Loch Valley 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    MEDIUM
    Jun 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued May 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 6 June to 10 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 May to 17 May, and 17 May to 21 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 May to 25 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 8 June to 12 June.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Loch Valley Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    May 04
    10.8 °C 15.4 °C
    1.4 mm
    Wednesday
    May 05
    6.2 °C 15.3 °C
    1.2 mm
    Thursday
    May 06
    9.4 °C 19.1 °C
    0.2 mm
    Friday
    May 07
    11.9 °C 20.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    May 08
    8.7 °C 18.5 °C
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Loch Valley minimum temp history (37.7964°S, 146.0102°E, 476m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 25.1° 02/05/2021 Coldest this month 3.4° 06/05/2021
    Hottest on record 26.4 01/05/1997 Coldest on record -3.2 20/05/2005
    Hottest this year 39.2° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 2.0° 13/04/2021
    Long term average 16.7° Long term average 5.6°
    Average this month 19.9° Average this month 6.6°
    Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.6° 2014 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 4.1° 2003
    Loch Valley rainfall history (37.7964°S, 146.0102°E, 476m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 16.8mm 04/05/2021 Total This Month 23.6mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 70.2mm 16.3 days Wettest May on record 119.4mm 2000
    Driest on record 10.8mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Loch Valley Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To May 279.6mm 54.1 day(s)
    Total For 2021 248.6mm 40.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 482.2mm 55.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 45.0mm Jan30
    Lowest Temperature 2.0°C Apr13
    Highest Temperature 39.2°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Loch Valley Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.0 27.7 25.2 20.8 16.7 14.1 13.5 14.7 17.3 19.9 22.8 25.3 20.5
    Mean Min (°C) 12.0 11.9 9.9 7.0 5.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 5.5 6.8 8.9 9.9 7.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 48.8 52.7 49.5 58.4 70.2 65.0 61.8 71.9 69.3 68.1 72.2 60.9 745.5
    Mean Rain Days 9.0 7.2 9.2 12.4 16.3 17.9 18.7 18.9 15.1 14.1 12.2 10.5 161.2