Forecast
Loch (38.369°S, 145.7091°E, 95m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 18° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:15am EDT 5:47am EDT 8:38pm EDT 9:10pm EDT NOW14.0° Feels Like: 14.1° Relative Humidity: 93% Dew: 12.9° Wind: NNW 4km/h Gust: 6km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm Pressure: 1011.9hPa -
Today Weather
LochNow13.1°cFeels Like:13.7°Wind:WNW 2km/hGusts:4km/hHumidity:100%12°Min18°MaxToday in LochMostly cloudy. Slight chance of a light shower near Wilsons Promontory in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending W/SW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 26.Tomorrow12°Min20°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 26. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Loch
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a light shower near Wilsons Promontory in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending W/SW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 26.
Forecast for Loch (38.369°S, 145.7091°E, 95m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 12° 12° 11° 15° 15° 12° 15° Maximum 18° 20° 25° 31° 23° 34° 23° Chance of rain 20% 10% 5% 5% 5% 20% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)13
(km/h)4
(km/h)5
(km/h)0
(km/h)6
(km/h)5
(km/h)7
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)6
(km/h)9
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction WNW W W SW ESE S NNE W SW SW ENE SE W SW Relative humidity 78% 61% 75% 61% 71% 54% 57% 37% 69% 56% 58% 40% 57% 57% Dew point 11°C 11°C 11°C 13°C 11°C 15°C 12°C 15°C 12°C 14°C 11°C 17°C 11°C 13°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Loch Rain Forecast
Loch 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
28
29
30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
4
5
6
LOW7
8
9
10
11
12
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Loch Rain Forecast
Loch 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020356654754456105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Loch Rain Forecast
Loch 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
28
29
30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
4
5
6
LOW7
8
9
10
11
12
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Loch Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0911.6 °C 31.4 °C 1.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1012.6 °C 16.8 °C 1.2 mmWednesday
Dec 1112.2 °C 18.8 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1212.2 °C 17.7 °C 1.2 mmFriday
Dec 1311.3 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Loch minimum temp history (38.369°S, 145.7091°E, 95m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 31.4° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.4° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 41.7 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 2.0 02/12/1982 Hottest this year 41.7° 06/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.8° 24/06/2019 Long term average 22.0° Long term average 11.7° Average this month 19.3° Average this month 11.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.0° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.9° 1982 Loch rainfall history (38.369°S, 145.7091°E, 95m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 16.0mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 37.0mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 60.1mm 9.4 days Wettest December on record 143.2mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Loch Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 929.9mm 149.7 day(s) Total For 2019 875.3mm 148.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 818.2mm 168.0 day(s) Wettest Day 48.4mm Aug12 Lowest Temperature 0.8°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 41.7°C Jan 6 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Loch Climatology
Loch Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 23.9 24.6 22.8 19.7 16.7 14.2 13.5 14.5 16.1 18.2 20.0 22.0 18.8 Mean Min (°C) 13.1 13.4 12.3 10.4 8.7 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.8 8.8 10.4 11.7 9.7 Mean Rain (mm) 48.2 44.9 60.1 78.0 98.2 95.9 98.9 100.8 88.8 87.1 68.9 60.1 930.1 Mean Rain Days 7.7 6.9 9.5 12.2 15.1 15.5 17.1 16.9 14.9 13.5 11.0 9.4 146.6