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Forecast

Llanelly (36.7321°S, 143.8571°E, 167m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 12° 23°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:03am EDT 6:30am EDT 7:50pm EDT 8:17pm EDT
    NOW
    15.1° Feels Like: 11.8°
    Relative Humidity: 76%
    Dew: 10.9°
    Wind: SE 19km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1010.8hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Llanelly
    Now
    15.6°c
    Feels Like:
    14.2°
    Wind:
    SE 7km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    69%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    12°
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Today in Llanelly
    Humid. Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, mostly in the afternoon and evening with heavy falls possible. Isolated thunderstorms. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/NE in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Rain
    10°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Humid. Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain in the morning and early afternoon, with heavy falls possible in the E. The chance of thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon. Winds N/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending SE/SW 20 to 30 km/h before dawn then S 25 to 40 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 20.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Humid. Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, mostly in the afternoon and evening with heavy falls possible. Isolated thunderstorms. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/NE in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s.

    Forecast for Llanelly (36.7321°S, 143.8571°E, 167m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Rain Cloudy Cloudy Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 12° 10°
    Maximum 23° 16° 14° 16° 17° 19° 19°
    Chance of rain 90% 40% 30% 20% 50% 90% 70%
    Likely amount 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High High High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E NNE SSW SSW S S SSE SE SE SE SE SE SSE S
    Relative humidity 77% 74% 84% 62% 65% 54% 69% 54% 72% 59% 77% 62% 75% 61%
    Dew point 13°C 18°C 8°C 8°C 3°C 5°C 4°C 7°C 6°C 9°C 9°C 11°C 10°C 12°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Llanelly Rain Forecast


    Llanelly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    23
    HIGH
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    MEDIUM
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Llanelly Rain Forecast


    Llanelly 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2020
    2021
    9
    8
    7
    8
    9
    8
    6
    4
    6
    5
    5
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 8

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Negative SAM status: Positive La Niña thresholds have been met due to continued cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters in the last month. The atmospheric and ocean conditions have both exceeded La Niña thresholds, with the current Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.68 and the Southern Oscillation Index is +9.5, now well over the La Niña threshold of +7. The majority of models predict that La Niña will peak in December, with all eight models predicting the event will last until January and 5 of 8 models to February. During this month’s model run, the strength of the La Niña event has increased since last month, however at this stage the event is not expected to be as strong as the 2010-2012 La Niña. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase, which is likely to continue through October. Three of six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of November, beforebecoming neutral in December. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. The combination of La Niña and negative IOD conditions increase the likelihood of above normal precipitation in spring and summer across much of Australia. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the remainder of spring looks wetter than normal for much of Australia. However, normal to below normal precipitation is forecast for parts of western WA and western TAS. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal including western WA during these months. Western TAS precipitation outlook continues to be normal through summer. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brings an early start to the northern wet season.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Llanelly Rain Forecast


    Llanelly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    23
    HIGH
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    MEDIUM
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Llanelly Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Oct 18
    9.0 °C 14.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 19
    5.1 °C 15.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 20
    5.4 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 21
    - -
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 22
    - -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Llanelly minimum temp history (36.7321°S, 143.8571°E, 167m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 30.4° 03/10/2020 Coldest this month 3.6° 10/10/2020
    Hottest on record 35.4 30/10/1965 Coldest on record -0.4 09/10/2003
    Hottest this year 43.0° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -1.9° 24/07/2020
    Long term average 20.0° Long term average 7.2°
    Average this month 20.1° Average this month 7.9°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.8° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 6.1° 1982
    Llanelly rainfall history (36.7321°S, 143.8571°E, 167m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 9.6mm 08/10/2020 Total This Month 28.4mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 48.4mm 9.9 days Wettest October on record 195.0mm 1975
    Driest on record 1.3mm 1914
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Llanelly Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 442.8mm 95.0 day(s)
    Total For 2020 430.8mm 126.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 309.8mm 110.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 23.8mm Mar 5
    Lowest Temperature -1.9°C Jul24
    Highest Temperature 43.0°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Llanelly Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.8 28.9 25.5 20.8 16.3 13.1 12.3 13.9 16.5 20.0 23.4 26.4 20.5
    Mean Min (°C) 13.3 13.6 11.7 8.5 6.1 4.1 3.4 3.9 5.4 7.2 9.6 11.4 8.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 30.8 31.1 30.6 38.8 48.2 54.9 52.9 55.2 51.9 48.4 38.9 36.5 517.7
    Mean Rain Days 4.5 4.3 5.3 7.0 10.5 13.3 14.4 14.2 11.6 9.9 7.3 6.1 107.7