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Forecast

Leawarra (38.1661°S, 145.1358°E, 71m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Possible thunderstorm 11° 21°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 20-40mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:55am EDT 6:23am EDT 7:46pm EDT 8:13pm EDT
    NOW
    13.0° Feels Like: 12.3°
    Relative Humidity: 88%
    Dew: 11.0°
    Wind: SE 6km/h
    Gust: 7km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Leawarra
    Now
    13.0°c
    Feels Like:
    12.1°
    Wind:
    SW 7km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    91%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    11°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Leawarra
    Humid. Cloudy. Areas of early fog. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, mostly in the afternoon and evening with heavy falls possible about N and E suburbs. Isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending N/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.
    Tomorrow
    Possible thunderstorm
    11°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, easing to showers in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm early in the morning. Heavy falls possible about the nearby hills. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h turning S 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Leawarra

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Humid. Cloudy. Areas of early fog. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, mostly in the afternoon and evening with heavy falls possible about N and E suburbs. Isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending N/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

    Forecast for Leawarra (38.1661°S, 145.1358°E, 71m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Rain Possible shower Windy Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 11° 11° 11° 12°
    Maximum 21° 15° 14° 17° 18° 19° 19°
    Chance of rain 80% 80% 40% 50% 30% 40% 80%
    Likely amount 20-40mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index High High High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ESE E SW SW S SSE ESE SE ESE ESE ESE SSE ESE SSE
    Relative humidity 84% 70% 87% 65% 67% 60% 66% 55% 71% 60% 76% 65% 78% 66%
    Dew point 12°C 14°C 10°C 7°C 5°C 5°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 9°C 10°C 11°C 12°C 12°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Leawarra Rain Forecast


    Leawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    HIGH
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Leawarra Rain Forecast


    Leawarra 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2020
    2021
    8
    8
    8
    7
    7
    7
    6
    3
    6
    4
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 8

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Negative SAM status: Positive La Niña thresholds have been met due to continued cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters in the last month. The atmospheric and ocean conditions have both exceeded La Niña thresholds, with the current Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.68 and the Southern Oscillation Index is +9.5, now well over the La Niña threshold of +7. The majority of models predict that La Niña will peak in December, with all eight models predicting the event will last until January and 5 of 8 models to February. During this month’s model run, the strength of the La Niña event has increased since last month, however at this stage the event is not expected to be as strong as the 2010-2012 La Niña. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase, which is likely to continue through October. Three of six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of November, beforebecoming neutral in December. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. The combination of La Niña and negative IOD conditions increase the likelihood of above normal precipitation in spring and summer across much of Australia. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the remainder of spring looks wetter than normal for much of Australia. However, normal to below normal precipitation is forecast for parts of western WA and western TAS. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal including western WA during these months. Western TAS precipitation outlook continues to be normal through summer. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brings an early start to the northern wet season.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Leawarra Rain Forecast


    Leawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    HIGH
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Leawarra Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Oct 18
    10.5 °C 15.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Monday
    Oct 19
    7.2 °C 15.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 20
    4.7 °C 16.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 21
    9.9 °C 16.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 22
    7.4 °C 18.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Leawarra minimum temp history (38.1661°S, 145.1358°E, 71m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 28.7° 04/10/2020 Coldest this month 4.7° 20/10/2020
    Hottest on record 36.2 12/10/2006 Coldest on record 0.6 29/10/1993
    Hottest this year 43.7° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year 0.0° 29/06/2020
    Long term average 19.3° Long term average 9.3°
    Average this month 19.0° Average this month 10.1°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.3° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 7.6° 2003
    Leawarra rainfall history (38.1661°S, 145.1358°E, 71m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 10.8mm 17/10/2020 Total This Month 45.4mm
    10.0 days
    Long Term Average 69.1mm 13.7 days Wettest October on record 165.4mm 1975
    Driest on record 7.4mm 2006
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Leawarra Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 589.5mm 127.7 day(s)
    Total For 2020 719.4mm 149.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 423.6mm 121.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 54.8mm Mar 5
    Lowest Temperature 0.0°C Jun29
    Highest Temperature 43.7°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Leawarra Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.8 26.1 23.8 20.2 17.0 14.2 13.7 14.9 17.0 19.3 21.6 24.0 19.8
    Mean Min (°C) 14.2 14.4 13.0 10.5 8.7 6.7 6.2 6.9 8.1 9.3 11.1 12.7 10.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 43.2 46.9 44.9 63.2 70.5 57.4 62.7 66.1 65.5 69.1 63.8 59.9 714.0
    Mean Rain Days 7.8 6.9 9.0 11.6 14.9 15.1 17.3 16.9 14.5 13.7 12.0 10.0 144.7