Forecast
Lancaster (36.315°S, 145.1321°E, 98m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY9° 28° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:25am EDT 5:55am EDT 8:30pm EDT 9:01pm EDT NOW25.1° Feels Like: 20.0° Relative Humidity: 25% Dew: 3.7° Wind: SSW 19km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
LancasterNow24.1°cFeels Like:18.1°Wind:SSW 26km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:31%9°Min28°MaxToday in LancasterSunny. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.Tomorrow10°Min28°MaxSunny. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Lancaster
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.
Forecast for Lancaster (36.315°S, 145.1321°E, 98m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 9° 10° 9° 11° 13° 10° 13° Maximum 28° 28° 27° 30° 30° 33° 39° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 18
(km/h)20
(km/h)18
(km/h)20
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)7
(km/h)18
(km/h)9
(km/h)13
(km/h)8
(km/h)11
(km/h)Wind direction SSW SW SSW SSW SSW SW WSW WSW W W SSW SW ENE W Relative humidity 52% 23% 58% 23% 55% 21% 60% 25% 50% 11% 41% 13% 37% 10% Dew point 7°C 5°C 10°C 5°C 7°C 2°C 11°C 7°C 10°C -3°C 6°C 1°C 9°C 2°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lancaster Rain Forecast
Lancaster 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lancaster Rain Forecast
Lancaster 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020366655755457105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Lancaster Rain Forecast
Lancaster 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Lancaster Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 078.4 °C 27.9 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 088.9 °C 32.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0913.6 °C 39.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1016.6 °C 27.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1110.1 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lancaster minimum temp history (36.315°S, 145.1321°E, 98m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.7° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.4° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 43.3 31/12/2005 Coldest on record 3.7 28/12/2010 Hottest this year 47.1° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.6° 24/06/2019 Long term average 28.1° Long term average 12.5° Average this month 26.6° Average this month 10.2° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.5° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.7° 1969 Lancaster rainfall history (36.315°S, 145.1321°E, 98m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 0.2mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 32.4mm 6.1 days Wettest December on record 93.7mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Lancaster Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 451.5mm 109.0 day(s) Total For 2019 235.8mm 93.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 284.0mm 77.0 day(s) Wettest Day 18.6mm May 2 Lowest Temperature -2.6°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 47.1°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Lancaster Climatology
Lancaster Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.3 30.0 26.6 21.8 17.3 13.9 13.1 14.9 17.6 21.4 25.2 28.1 21.7 Mean Min (°C) 14.4 14.8 12.4 8.8 6.1 3.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 7.5 10.3 12.5 8.6 Mean Rain (mm) 33.8 28.6 29.4 37.9 42.3 40.8 43.3 43.6 43.0 39.1 37.3 32.4 451.2 Mean Rain Days 4.8 4.1 5.1 6.4 10.8 14.1 16.3 13.6 11.5 8.8 7.4 6.1 107.5