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Forecast

Lake Bolac (37.7124°S, 142.8398°E, 215m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 20°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 5-10mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:05am EDT 6:32am EDT 7:55pm EDT 8:22pm EDT
    NOW
    10.7° Feels Like: 8.4°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 10.7°
    Wind: E 13km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm
    Pressure: 1039.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Lake Bolac
    Now
    11.2°c
    Feels Like:
    9.1°
    Wind:
    E 13km/h
    Gusts:
    17km/h
    Humidity:
    100%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    Min
    20°
    Max
    Today in Lake Bolac
    Humid. Cloudy. The chance of morning fog. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. Isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending N/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S/SW in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching around 20.
    Tomorrow
    Rain
    Min
    13°
    Max
    Cloudy. High chance of rain, easing to showers in the morning. The chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 8 with daytime temperatures reaching around 13.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Humid. Cloudy. The chance of morning fog. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. Isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending N/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S/SW in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching around 20.

    Forecast for Lake Bolac (37.7124°S, 142.8398°E, 215m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Rain Possible shower Cloudy Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum
    Maximum 20° 13° 13° 15° 16° 18° 17°
    Chance of rain 90% 80% 40% 20% 30% 90% 70%
    Likely amount 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index High High High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 11
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E SE SW SW S SSE SE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE SE SE
    Relative humidity 100% 82% 93% 64% 73% 55% 78% 58% 86% 65% 95% 69% 94% 65%
    Dew point 13°C 15°C 10°C 5°C 5°C 3°C 7°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 12°C 11°C 11°C 9°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Lake Bolac Rain Forecast


    Lake Bolac 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    HIGH
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Lake Bolac Rain Forecast


    Lake Bolac 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2020
    2021
    8
    7
    7
    8
    7
    8
    6
    4
    6
    4
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 8

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Negative SAM status: Positive La Niña thresholds have been met due to continued cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters in the last month. The atmospheric and ocean conditions have both exceeded La Niña thresholds, with the current Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.68 and the Southern Oscillation Index is +9.5, now well over the La Niña threshold of +7. The majority of models predict that La Niña will peak in December, with all eight models predicting the event will last until January and 5 of 8 models to February. During this month’s model run, the strength of the La Niña event has increased since last month, however at this stage the event is not expected to be as strong as the 2010-2012 La Niña. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase, which is likely to continue through October. Three of six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of November, beforebecoming neutral in December. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. The combination of La Niña and negative IOD conditions increase the likelihood of above normal precipitation in spring and summer across much of Australia. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the remainder of spring looks wetter than normal for much of Australia. However, normal to below normal precipitation is forecast for parts of western WA and western TAS. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal including western WA during these months. Western TAS precipitation outlook continues to be normal through summer. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brings an early start to the northern wet season.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Lake Bolac Rain Forecast


    Lake Bolac 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    HIGH
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Lake Bolac Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Oct 18
    7.7 °C 12.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 19
    3.3 °C 14.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 20
    6.2 °C 16.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 21
    1.9 °C 17.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 22
    3.6 °C 18.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Lake Bolac minimum temp history (37.7124°S, 142.8398°E, 215m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 25.8° 02/10/2020 Coldest this month 1.3° 10/10/2020
    Hottest on record 35.4 12/10/2006 Coldest on record -4.6 22/10/2006
    Hottest this year 43.3° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -3.1° 17/07/2020
    Long term average 19.5° Long term average 5.3°
    Average this month 17.0° Average this month 6.4°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.2° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 2.7° 2006
    Lake Bolac rainfall history (37.7124°S, 142.8398°E, 215m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 22.2mm 05/10/2020 Total This Month 47.6mm
    10.0 days
    Long Term Average 41.0mm 14.2 days Wettest October on record 98.2mm 2016
    Driest on record 4.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Lake Bolac Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 423.2mm 141.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 513.4mm 147.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 424.0mm 126.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 29.0mm Sep13
    Lowest Temperature -3.1°C Jul17
    Highest Temperature 43.3°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Lake Bolac Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.2 27.5 25.1 20.0 15.8 12.9 12.1 13.4 15.8 19.5 23.0 25.8 19.9
    Mean Min (°C) 11.3 11.7 10.1 7.7 6.5 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.3 7.9 9.2 7.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 46.9 18.3 22.7 37.6 49.8 41.3 57.8 57.7 50.1 41.0 42.5 43.4 507.8
    Mean Rain Days 6.9 6.2 7.8 12.9 17.0 17.5 20.5 21.1 17.3 14.2 11.4 9.3 152.1