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Forecast

Gormandale (38.2943°S, 146.7019°E, 149m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly sunny 17°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:23am EDT 5:53am EDT 8:05pm EDT 8:35pm EDT
    NOW
    13.0° Feels Like: 4.4°
    Relative Humidity: 69%
    Dew: 7.5°
    Wind: WSW 41km/h
    Gust: 46km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1010.8hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Gormandale
    Now
    14.4°c
    Feels Like:
    6.8°
    Wind:
    WSW 35km/h
    Gusts:
    43km/h
    Humidity:
    60%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Today in Gormandale
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near Wilsons Promontory at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 21.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the west, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 15 to 20 km/h tending SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 20.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Gormandale

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near Wilsons Promontory at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 21.

    Forecast for Gormandale (38.2943°S, 146.7019°E, 149m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 14°
    Maximum 17° 18° 25° 22° 28° 37° 21°
    Chance of rain 30% 40% 20% 20% 10% 5% 60%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 23
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W W WSW WNW W W WSW ENE E N WNW SW SSW
    Relative humidity 72% 50% 76% 57% 66% 43% 74% 58% 79% 51% 48% 42% 72% 59%
    Dew point 7°C 6°C 8°C 9°C 7°C 11°C 12°C 14°C 11°C 16°C 18°C 18°C 9°C 12°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Gormandale Rain Forecast


    Gormandale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    Dec 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    HIGH
    6
    HIGH
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov15

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 November to 26 November, 26 November to 30 November, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 16 December to 20 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 8 December to 12 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Gormandale Rain Forecast


    Gormandale 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    8
    3
    8
    6
    5
    5
    7
    8
    5
    3
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Gormandale Rain Forecast


    Gormandale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    Dec 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    HIGH
    6
    HIGH
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov15

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 November to 26 November, 26 November to 30 November, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 16 December to 20 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 8 December to 12 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Gormandale Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Nov 11
    9.0 °C 26.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 12
    11.9 °C 16.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 13
    6.8 °C 16.2 °C
    4.2 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 14
    9.8 °C 20.8 °C
    1.2 mm
    Friday
    Nov 15
    11.3 °C 19 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Gormandale minimum temp history (38.2943°S, 146.7019°E, 149m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 33.0° 01/11/2019 Coldest this month 5.0° 09/11/2019
    Hottest on record 38.6 20/11/2009 Coldest on record 0.6 03/11/1999
    Hottest this year 45.4° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.5° 24/06/2019
    Long term average 22.0° Long term average 9.5°
    Average this month 19.3° Average this month 9.0°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.0° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 7.9° 2006
    Gormandale rainfall history (38.2943°S, 146.7019°E, 149m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 28.2mm 08/11/2019 Total This Month 81.0mm
    10.0 days
    Long Term Average 74.4mm 13.2 days Wettest November on record 135.8mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Gormandale Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 670.6mm 168.9 day(s)
    Total For 2019 621.8mm 154.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 406.4mm 139.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 31.0mm Aug11
    Lowest Temperature -2.5°C Jun24
    Highest Temperature 45.4°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Gormandale Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.6 26.6 24.5 20.5 16.9 14.2 13.6 14.9 17.0 19.6 22.0 24.3 20.1
    Mean Min (°C) 12.8 12.9 11.3 8.7 6.5 4.5 3.8 4.4 5.9 7.4 9.5 11.2 8.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 48.8 46.0 48.5 57.7 54.1 63.9 65.3 65.4 74.2 72.3 74.4 66.5 735.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.4 8.8 11.6 14.3 17.7 20.1 21.1 19.8 17.5 15.4 13.2 12.3 177.6