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Forecast

Glen Alvie (38.4971°S, 145.6462°E, 186m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible shower 17°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:26am EDT 5:55am EDT 8:10pm EDT 8:39pm EDT
    NOW
    13.0° Feels Like: 8.0°
    Relative Humidity: 66%
    Dew: 6.8°
    Wind: W 22km/h
    Gust: 30km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Glen Alvie
    Now
    12.7°c
    Feels Like:
    8.7°
    Wind:
    W 15km/h
    Gusts:
    20km/h
    Humidity:
    60%
    Possible shower
     
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Today in Glen Alvie
    Becoming cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the southeast. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 15 and 19.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the east, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending S/SW in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 18.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Becoming cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the southeast. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 15 and 19.

    Forecast for Glen Alvie (38.4971°S, 145.6462°E, 186m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10° 14° 10°
    Maximum 17° 17° 22° 19° 27° 33° 19°
    Chance of rain 50% 40% 60% 50% 10% 30% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 13
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    1
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W WSW WSW NW W W SW ENE ENE NW W S S
    Relative humidity 62% 55% 68% 53% 68% 51% 80% 66% 72% 47% 55% 60% 69% 57%
    Dew point 6°C 8°C 6°C 8°C 7°C 12°C 11°C 13°C 9°C 13°C 20°C 19°C 8°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Glen Alvie Rain Forecast


    Glen Alvie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov15

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 November to 26 November, 26 November to 30 November, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 16 December to 20 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 8 December to 12 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Glen Alvie Rain Forecast


    Glen Alvie 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    8
    5
    8
    6
    6
    5
    6
    8
    4
    3
    5
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Glen Alvie Rain Forecast


    Glen Alvie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov15

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 November to 26 November, 26 November to 30 November, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 16 December to 20 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 8 December to 12 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Glen Alvie Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Nov 11
    7.2 °C 26.4 °C
    11.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 12
    11.8 °C 14.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 13
    7.8 °C 15.5 °C
    5.4 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 14
    9.6 °C 18.9 °C
    2.2 mm
    Friday
    Nov 15
    10.8 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Glen Alvie minimum temp history (38.4971°S, 145.6462°E, 186m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 31.9° 03/11/2019 Coldest this month 6.1° 05/11/2019
    Hottest on record 36.1 26/11/1997 Coldest on record 0.5 04/11/1980
    Hottest this year 41.7° 06/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.8° 24/06/2019
    Long term average 20.0° Long term average 10.4°
    Average this month 19.2° Average this month 9.6°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.8° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 8.7° 1972
    Glen Alvie rainfall history (38.4971°S, 145.6462°E, 186m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 21.8mm 08/11/2019 Total This Month 63.2mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 68.9mm 11.0 days Wettest November on record 167.0mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Glen Alvie Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 869.8mm 140.3 day(s)
    Total For 2019 833.7mm 136.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 734.6mm 158.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 48.4mm Aug12
    Lowest Temperature 0.8°C Jun24
    Highest Temperature 41.7°C Jan 6
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Glen Alvie Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 23.9 24.6 22.8 19.7 16.7 14.2 13.5 14.5 16.1 18.2 20.0 22.0 18.8
    Mean Min (°C) 13.1 13.4 12.3 10.4 8.7 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.8 8.8 10.4 11.7 9.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 48.2 44.9 60.1 78.0 98.2 95.9 98.9 100.8 88.8 87.1 68.9 60.1 930.1
    Mean Rain Days 7.7 6.9 9.5 12.2 15.1 15.5 17.1 16.9 14.9 13.5 11.0 9.4 146.6