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Forecast

Garvoc (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly sunny 7° 20°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:34am EDT 6:04am EDT 8:26pm EDT 8:56pm EDT
    NOW
    13.5° Feels Like: 10.0°
    Relative Humidity: 82%
    Dew: 10.5°
    Wind: SW 19km/h
    Gust: 22km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Garvoc
    Now
    13.5°c
    Feels Like:
    7.6°
    Wind:
    WSW 32km/h
    Gusts:
    41km/h
    Humidity:
    86%
    Mostly sunny
     
    7°
    Min
    20°
    Max
    Today in Garvoc
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the Otways in the early morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 22.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    7°
    Min
    20°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the south in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending W/SW in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 22.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the Otways in the early morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 22.

    Forecast for Garvoc (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 7° 7° 5° 7° 7° 4° 6°
    Maximum 20° 19° 23° 30° 16° 22° 23°
    Chance of rain 5% 30% 5% 60% 60% 5% 20%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Very High Extreme Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Slight Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)     		15
    (km/h)     		18
    (km/h)     		22
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		15
    (km/h)     		23
    (km/h)     		23
    (km/h)     		28
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		18
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		21
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW SW WNW WSW N W N NNW WSW SW NW WSW NNW W
    Relative humidity 82% 52% 88% 62% 85% 42% 61% 34% 82% 53% 80% 45% 81% 42%
    Dew point 9°C 10°C 13°C 11°C 10°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 8°C 7°C 8°C 10°C 11°C 10°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Garvoc Rain Forecast

    Garvoc 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Garvoc Rain Forecast

    Garvoc 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    9
    5
    9
    6
    5
    5
    6
    7
    5
    5
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Garvoc Rain Forecast

    Garvoc 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Garvoc Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Nov 17     		7.7 °C 16.0 °C
    0.4 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18     		3.1 °C 24.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19     		6.1 °C 18.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20     		6.9 °C 33.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 21     		13.7 °C 34 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Garvoc minimum temp history (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 33.0° 20/11/2019 Coldest this month 2.6° 05/11/2019
    Hottest on record 38.3 21/11/2006 Coldest on record -1.4 16/11/1994
    Hottest this year 43.6° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -3.0° 24/06/2019
    Long term average 20.8° Long term average 7.8°
    Average this month 18.9° Average this month 8.0°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.6° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 5.4° 2001
    Garvoc rainfall history (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 11.4mm 08/11/2019 Total This Month 37.2mm
    12.0 days
    Long Term Average 48.9mm 12.5 days Wettest November on record 96.4mm 2009

  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Garvoc Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 556.4mm 163.0 day(s)
    Total For 2019 592.0mm 169.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 426.6mm 137.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 37.6mm May10
    Lowest Temperature -3.0°C Jun24
    Highest Temperature 43.6°C Jan24

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Garvoc Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.0 26.3 24.0 20.0 16.2 13.5 13.0 13.9 15.8 18.1 20.8 23.6 19.3
    Mean Min (°C) 10.9 11.5 9.9 7.9 6.6 5.1 4.6 4.8 5.7 6.4 7.8 9.3 7.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 37.2 33.7 33.7 47.5 53.7 54.7 66.5 67.8 59.1 53.6 48.9 43.8 600.5
    Mean Rain Days 8.2 7.3 10.6 14.3 17.6 18.1 20.0 19.0 18.8 16.6 12.5 11.1 166.9

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