Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Damaging Winds
for parts of Central, South West and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:01 am Wednesday, 27 January 2021.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
Weather Situation
A high pressure system moving to the south of Victoria will result in easterly winds strengthening on Wednesday evening.
DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Central, South West and West and South Gippsland
DAMAGING EASTERLY WINDS, averaging 40 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 80 to 90 km/h developing from late Wednesday about parts of southern Victoria and the Grampians. The strongest gusts are most likely about the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Port Phillip and the Surf Coast, and most likely to occur in the period around midnight.
Winds are mostly expected to ease by sunrise on Thursday, however strong gusts may continue to be experienced about Wilsons Prom and Cape Otway during the day on Thursday.
Locations which may be affected include Wonthaggi, Frankston, Rosebud, Warragul, Moe and Wilsons Prom.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEDT Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Garvoc (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY8° 23° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:06am EDT 6:36am EDT 8:47pm EDT 9:17pm EDT NOW21.1° Feels Like: 17.4° Relative Humidity: 43% Dew: 8.3° Wind: SE 17km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1031.5hPa -
Today Weather
GarvocNow18.5°cFeels Like:12.3°Wind:SE 32km/hGusts:37km/hHumidity:56%8°Min23°MaxToday in GarvocPartly cloudy. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.Tomorrow12°Min27°MaxMostly sunny day. Medium chance of showers at night. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h turning E early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Forecast for Garvoc (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 8° 12° 15° 14° 12° 11° 11° Maximum 23° 27° 27° 22° 24° 27° 20° Chance of rain 10% 90% 80% 50% 10% 70% 50% Likely amount < 1mm 10-20mm 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)20
(km/h)27
(km/h)27
(km/h)17
(km/h)17
(km/h)14
(km/h)20
(km/h)13
(km/h)15
(km/h)9
(km/h)18
(km/h)18
(km/h)25
(km/h)Wind direction SE SE E E NE NE W SW S S SSW SW SW SSW Relative humidity 60% 47% 81% 58% 98% 85% 98% 74% 91% 57% 93% 61% 90% 59% Dew point 7°C 9°C 15°C 17°C 18°C 21°C 17°C 16°C 15°C 14°C 16°C 17°C 13°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Garvoc Rain Forecast
Garvoc 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT27
28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
4
LOW5
HIGH6
LOW7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan27Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Garvoc Rain Forecast
Garvoc 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20211088656676766105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Garvoc Rain Forecast
Garvoc 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT27
28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
4
LOW5
HIGH6
LOW7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan27Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Garvoc Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Jan 2310.8 °C 31.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Jan 2413.7 °C 40.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2518.1 °C 29.4 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2614.7 °C 20.8 °C 16.4 mmWednesday
Jan 277.5 °C 22.1 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Garvoc minimum temp history (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 40.0° 24/01/2021 Coldest this month 3.4° 20/01/2021 Hottest on record 44.9 29/01/2009 Coldest on record 1.1 03/01/2009 Hottest this year 40.0° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year 3.4° 20/01/2021 Long term average 26.2° Long term average 11.0° Average this month 25.5° Average this month 11.2° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.5° 2014 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 7.5° 2002 Garvoc rainfall history (38.2981°S, 142.8042°E, 89m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 26.0mm 03/01/2021 Total This Month 59.4mm
11.0 daysLong Term Average 33.4mm 7.7 days Wettest January on record 134.4mm 2011 Driest on record 1.6mm 2013 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
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Year to Date
Garvoc Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 33.4mm 7.7 day(s) Total For 2021 59.4mm 11.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 19.2mm 5.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.0mm Jan 3 Lowest Temperature 3.4°C Jan20 Highest Temperature 40.0°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Garvoc Climatology
Garvoc Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.2 26.3 24.1 20.1 16.2 13.6 13.0 13.9 15.8 18.3 21.0 23.6 19.3 Mean Min (°C) 11.0 11.5 9.9 8.0 6.6 4.9 4.6 4.7 5.6 6.5 8.0 9.3 7.5 Mean Rain (mm) 33.4 33.0 31.5 43.0 59.2 54.2 62.5 67.3 57.9 50.9 48.9 40.8 582.4 Mean Rain Days 7.7 7.6 10.4 14.3 17.9 18.4 20.3 19.2 18.9 16.7 12.5 11.4 175.7