Forecast
Falls Creek (36.8631°S, 147.2817°E, 1540m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 17° Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:48am EDT 7:13am EDT 7:23pm EDT 7:49pm EDT NOW14.2° Feels Like: 8.0° Relative Humidity: 87% Dew: 12.1° Wind: N 35km/h Gust: 44km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1018.9hPa -
Today Weather
Falls CreekNow21.5°cFeels Like:16.9°Wind:N 26km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:52%10°Min17°MaxToday in Falls CreekPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h turning W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.Tomorrow7°Min7°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the E, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the N in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h becoming SW 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending S in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 22. -
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Falls Creek
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h turning W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.
Forecast for Falls Creek (36.8631°S, 147.2817°E, 1540m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 10° 7° -1° 4° 3° 4° 5° Maximum 17° 7° 12° 13° 12° 14° 14° Chance of rain 90% 50% 5% 20% 30% 5% 5% Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High High Moderate Moderate No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Severe Slight Slight Slight Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 15
(km/h)17
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)10
(km/h)5
(km/h)10
(km/h)9
(km/h)10
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)10
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction N NNW W SSW SSE ENE NW NW SSE W WNW NW NNW NW Relative humidity 97% 87% 97% 70% 63% 60% 74% 66% 87% 72% 77% 61% 66% 59% Dew point 13°C 14°C 9°C 0°C -4°C 3°C 2°C 5°C 3°C 6°C 3°C 5°C 2°C 5°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Falls Creek Rain Forecast
Falls Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Falls Creek Rain Forecast
Falls Creek 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025555754646579105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Falls Creek Rain Forecast
Falls Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Falls Creek Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 155.0 °C 13.8 °C 3.6 mmSaturday
Mar 165.6 °C 16.6 °C 0.4 mmSunday
Mar 176.7 °C 16.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 187.8 °C 16.3 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1910.1 °C 15.8 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Falls Creek minimum temp history (36.8631°S, 147.2817°E, 1540m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 23.5° 10/03/2024 Coldest this month 1.8° 04/03/2024 Hottest on record 25.3 07/03/2016 Coldest on record -3.6 12/03/1991 Hottest this year 23.5° 10/03/2024 Coldest this year 1.2° 07/02/2024 Long term average 14.2° Long term average 6.3° Average this month 18.1° Average this month 9.8° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.0° 2006 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 3.6° 1994 Falls Creek rainfall history (36.8631°S, 147.2817°E, 1540m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.6mm 15/03/2024 Total This Month 5.2mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 108.0mm 11.4 days Wettest March on record 313.2mm 2012 Driest on record 9.8mm 1998 -
Year to Date
Falls Creek Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 328.6mm 33.5 day(s) Total For 2024 330.6mm 31.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 250.4mm 43.0 day(s) Wettest Day 106.0mm Feb 6 Lowest Temperature 1.2°C Feb 7 Highest Temperature 23.5°C Mar10 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Falls Creek Climatology
Falls Creek Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 17.9 17.1 14.2 9.8 5.8 2.8 1.2 1.8 5.0 9.1 12.5 15.1 9.3 Mean Min (°C) 8.9 8.4 6.3 3.2 0.5 -1.6 -2.9 -2.7 -0.8 1.7 4.3 6.3 2.6 Mean Rain (mm) 130.5 90.1 108.0 99.1 102.5 152.1 98.9 116.9 123.1 144.8 134.2 122.3 1372.5 Mean Rain Days 11.6 10.5 11.4 10.9 12.0 14.9 15.4 16.0 14.4 13.4 12.6 11.3 149.9