Forecast
Ensay (37.3747°S, 147.8368°E, 214m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY15° 20° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:08am EDT 5:39am EDT 8:21pm EDT 8:52pm EDT NOW25.6° Feels Like: 20.9° Relative Humidity: 24% Dew: 3.5° Wind: N 17km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
EnsayNow15.8°cFeels Like:15.1°Wind:CAL 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:56%15°Min20°MaxToday in EnsayPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the New South Wales border, near zero chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze in the west. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges in the afternoon and early evening. Winds NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW before dawn then tending S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 28.Tomorrow9°Min19°MaxPartly cloudy. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 26. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Ensay
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the New South Wales border, near zero chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze in the west. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges in the afternoon and early evening. Winds NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW before dawn then tending S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 28.
Forecast for Ensay (37.3747°S, 147.8368°E, 214m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 15° 9° 10° 9° 10° 11° 10° Maximum 20° 19° 19° 20° 23° 20° 23° Chance of rain 20% 10% 20% 10% 30% 40% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)11
(km/h)2
(km/h)8
(km/h)6
(km/h)10
(km/h)8
(km/h)7
(km/h)6
(km/h)9
(km/h)6
(km/h)9
(km/h)5
(km/h)10
(km/h)Wind direction SW SSW S SSE WSW SSW WSW SSW W SW WSW SSW WSW S Relative humidity 77% 60% 75% 62% 78% 58% 67% 45% 68% 48% 70% 55% 66% 45% Dew point 12°C 11°C 9°C 11°C 10°C 10°C 6°C 7°C 9°C 11°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ensay Rain Forecast
Ensay 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT10
11
12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
LOW17
18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
26
LOW27
28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
7
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ensay Rain Forecast
Ensay 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020145864762357105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ensay Rain Forecast
Ensay 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT10
11
12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
LOW17
18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
26
LOW27
28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
7
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ensay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 059.7 °C 23.8 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0610.3 °C 22.4 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 078.7 °C 22.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 089.1 °C 22.2 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0911.3 °C 34 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ensay minimum temp history (37.3747°S, 147.8368°E, 214m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 23.8° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 6.4° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 41.5 10/12/2006 Coldest on record 4.6 12/12/1995 Hottest this year 44.5° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.4° 17/09/2019 Long term average 22.6° Long term average 12.2° Average this month 20.4° Average this month 8.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.6° 2003 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.8° 1995 Ensay rainfall history (37.3747°S, 147.8368°E, 214m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 5.8mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 7.8mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 81.9mm 10.9 days Wettest December on record 195.4mm 2003 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Ensay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 864.1mm 142.3 day(s) Total For 2019 523.0mm 132.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 456.0mm 118.0 day(s) Wettest Day 53.4mm Jun 4 Lowest Temperature 2.4°C Sep17 Highest Temperature 44.5°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ensay Climatology
Ensay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.8 24.5 22.7 19.2 15.9 13.3 12.9 14.4 16.9 19.1 21.0 22.6 19.0 Mean Min (°C) 14.3 14.3 13.0 10.7 8.7 6.9 6.0 6.4 7.9 9.0 10.8 12.2 10.0 Mean Rain (mm) 60.0 64.0 59.8 86.2 57.3 88.3 65.5 64.9 66.7 76.6 92.9 81.9 863.7 Mean Rain Days 10.4 9.3 10.5 11.1 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.2 13.3 13.5 11.3 10.9 133.2