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Forecast

Dumbalk (38.5316°S, 146.095°E, 49m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Showers 14°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:02am EDT 6:30am EDT 7:37pm EDT 8:04pm EDT
    NOW
    10.1° Feels Like: 9.1°
    Relative Humidity: 92%
    Dew: 8.8°
    Wind: E 4km/h
    Gust: 4km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Dumbalk
    Now
    11.5°c
    Feels Like:
    10.2°
    Wind:
    WNW 7km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    92%
    Showers
     
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Today in Dumbalk
    Cloudy. The chance of fog in the early morning. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 900 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 25 to 35 km/h during the morning and early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 15.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers in the west, slight chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1500 metres. Winds W/NW 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 22.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. The chance of fog in the early morning. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 900 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 25 to 35 km/h during the morning and early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 15.

    Forecast for Dumbalk (38.5316°S, 146.095°E, 49m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Showers Windy with showers Showers Possible shower Cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 14° 21° 15° 17° 17° 18° 23°
    Chance of rain 80% 80% 70% 40% 10% 5% 20%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High High High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 24
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW W NNW NW WNW W W WSW W WSW W SSW N WSW
    Relative humidity 76% 74% 63% 47% 66% 68% 69% 64% 73% 64% 76% 59% 68% 52%
    Dew point 5°C 8°C 4°C 9°C 4°C 8°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 7°C 10°C 9°C 13°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Dumbalk Rain Forecast


    Dumbalk 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    HIGH
    11
    LOW
    12
    HIGH
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Dumbalk Rain Forecast


    Dumbalk 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    2
    4
    4
    5
    6
    5
    5
    3
    9
    5
    4
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Dumbalk Rain Forecast


    Dumbalk 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    HIGH
    11
    LOW
    12
    HIGH
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Dumbalk Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Oct 12
    8.6 °C 17.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    6.0 °C 21.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 14
    11.6 °C 23.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    10.7 °C 16.8 °C
    0.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    9.8 °C 19 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Dumbalk minimum temp history (38.5316°S, 146.095°E, 49m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 29.4° 03/10/2019 Coldest this month 2.0° 04/10/2019
    Hottest on record 34.0 12/10/2006 Coldest on record 0.0 16/10/1984
    Hottest this year 41.7° 06/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.8° 24/06/2019
    Long term average 18.2° Long term average 8.8°
    Average this month 20.3° Average this month 6.8°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.5° 2014 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 7.4° 1982
    Dumbalk rainfall history (38.5316°S, 146.095°E, 49m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 8.8mm 08/10/2019 Total This Month 12.2mm
    5.0 days
    Long Term Average 87.1mm 13.5 days Wettest October on record 164.6mm 2014
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Dumbalk Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 800.9mm 129.3 day(s)
    Total For 2019 736.2mm 122.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 664.8mm 143.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 48.4mm Aug12
    Lowest Temperature 0.8°C Jun24
    Highest Temperature 41.7°C Jan 6
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Dumbalk Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 23.9 24.6 22.8 19.7 16.7 14.2 13.5 14.5 16.1 18.2 20.0 22.0 18.8
    Mean Min (°C) 13.1 13.4 12.3 10.4 8.7 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.8 8.8 10.4 11.7 9.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 48.2 44.9 60.1 78.0 98.2 95.9 98.9 100.8 88.8 87.1 68.9 60.1 930.1
    Mean Rain Days 7.7 6.9 9.5 12.2 15.1 15.5 17.1 16.9 14.9 13.5 11.0 9.4 146.6