Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Fire Weather Warning
for Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country forecast districts
Issued at 04:58 AM EDT on Monday 09 December 2019
Weather Situation
Hot north to northwesterly winds developing today ahead of a cooler, gusty southwesterly change, expected over the west during the afternoon and central districts during the evening.
For the rest of Monday 09 December:
Extreme Fire Danger for the following areas:
Mallee
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Wimmera and Northern Country
The CFA advises that you:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.emergency.vic.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.cfa.vic.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Dorodong (37.3452°S, 141.0319°E, 99m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW10° 23° increasing sunshine Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:09am CDT 5:39am CDT 8:19pm CDT 8:50pm CDT NOW13.7° Feels Like: 11.3° Relative Humidity: 87% Dew: 11.6° Wind: SSW 15km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1018.1hPa -
Today Weather
DorodongNow12.5°cFeels Like:10.2°Wind:SW 15km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:98%10°Min23°MaxToday in DorodongMostly sunny. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30.Tomorrow10°Min23°MaxMostly sunny. Winds S/SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30.
Forecast for Dorodong (37.3452°S, 141.0319°E, 99m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 10° 7° 9° 7° 11° 11° 7° Maximum 23° 24° 21° 21° 21° 24° 29° Chance of rain 5% 10% 5% 40% 20% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 18
(km/h)21
(km/h)16
(km/h)17
(km/h)17
(km/h)23
(km/h)15
(km/h)22
(km/h)19
(km/h)25
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)11
(km/h)17
(km/h)Wind direction S S SSE SSW SSW SW WSW WSW W W W W W WSW Relative humidity 66% 37% 67% 36% 69% 43% 68% 43% 77% 44% 72% 35% 59% 25% Dew point 8°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 12°C 9°C 12°C 8°C 9°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Dorodong Rain Forecast
Dorodong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Dorodong Rain Forecast
Dorodong 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020466665665556105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Dorodong Rain Forecast
Dorodong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Dorodong Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 0512.4 °C 20.3 °C 0.2 mmFriday
Dec 0611.4 °C 18.6 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 072.8 °C 23.2 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 086.7 °C 33.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0918.6 °C 29 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Dorodong minimum temp history (37.3452°S, 141.0319°E, 99m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 32.0° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 2.8° 07/12/2019 Hottest on record 42.8 31/12/2007 Coldest on record 0.2 02/12/2015 Hottest this year 43.6° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -3.8° 22/06/2019 Long term average 25.0° Long term average 10.1° Average this month 20.8° Average this month 8.8° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.1° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 7.6° 1996 Dorodong rainfall history (37.3452°S, 141.0319°E, 99m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.6mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 4.4mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 37.5mm 9.0 days Wettest December on record 105.4mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Dorodong Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 621.1mm 157.5 day(s) Total For 2019 433.6mm 153.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 499.6mm 149.0 day(s) Wettest Day 19.4mm Nov 2 Lowest Temperature -3.8°C Jun22 Highest Temperature 43.6°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Dorodong Climatology
Dorodong Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.3 27.5 25.0 21.0 17.2 14.5 13.8 14.9 16.9 19.6 22.6 25.0 20.5 Mean Min (°C) 11.6 11.8 10.2 7.8 6.9 5.5 5.2 5.4 6.5 7.3 8.7 10.1 8.1 Mean Rain (mm) 29.7 18.3 31.1 39.7 56.8 81.4 88.1 85.4 68.1 49.0 36.0 37.5 615.5 Mean Rain Days 6.6 5.5 8.1 11.8 16.7 19.4 20.7 19.6 16.8 13.6 9.7 9.0 150.5