Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Brown Rot Advice
for Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 03:45 PM EDT on Thursday 28 January 2021
Severe Brown Rot Advice for the following areas:
Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts
Stone fruit growers in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the North East and West and South Gippsland forecast districts are advised that rainfall and accompanying high humidity during Thursday and Friday are conducive to a heavy outbreak of brown rot.
Brown Rot Advice for the following areas:
East Gippsland forecast district
Stone fruit growers in the East Gippsland forecast district are advised that rainfall and accompanying high humidity during Thursday and Friday may be conducive to an outbreak of brown rot.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Thursday.
Forecast
Doctors Flat (37.2987°S, 147.7486°E, 275m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW11° 21° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 10-20mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:52am EDT 6:21am EDT 8:24pm EDT 8:53pm EDT NOW14.7° Feels Like: 14.4° Relative Humidity: 93% Dew: 13.6° Wind: S 7km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 3.0mm Pressure: 1019.7hPa -
Today Weather
Doctors FlatNow15.5°cFeels Like:14.5°Wind:SE 9km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:82%11°Min21°MaxToday in Doctors FlatCloudy. High chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges at night. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h tending N/NE in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 23.Tomorrow11°Min21°MaxHumid. Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N/NE 15 to 25 km/h shifting S/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the late morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 17 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges at night. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h tending N/NE in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 23.
Forecast for Doctors Flat (37.2987°S, 147.7486°E, 275m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 11° 13° 11° 11° 12° 8° 7° Maximum 21° 27° 24° 28° 20° 22° 21° Chance of rain 80% 80% 30% 80% 70% 30% 70% Likely amount 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)19
(km/h)14
(km/h)12
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)12
(km/h)19
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)13
(km/h)15
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction NNE NNE N SW S SSE N NNW NNW W N WNW N NE Relative humidity 81% 76% 89% 59% 91% 55% 75% 42% 82% 47% 70% 43% 71% 40% Dew point 12°C 15°C 16°C 17°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 13°C 11°C 7°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Doctors Flat Rain Forecast
Doctors Flat 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
LOW29
HIGH30
HIGH31
LOWFeb 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
6
7
LOW8
LOW9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
HIGH17
HIGH18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
22
MEDIUM23
HIGH24
LOW25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Doctors Flat Rain Forecast
Doctors Flat 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20211088677743564105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Doctors Flat Rain Forecast
Doctors Flat 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
LOW29
HIGH30
HIGH31
LOWFeb 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
6
7
LOW8
LOW9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
HIGH17
HIGH18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
22
MEDIUM23
HIGH24
LOW25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Doctors Flat Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2411.4 °C 36.3 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2514.4 °C 35.3 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2623.4 °C 25.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 279.0 °C 17.9 °C 22.4 mmThursday
Jan 289.6 °C 18.0 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Doctors Flat minimum temp history (37.2987°S, 147.7486°E, 275m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.3° 24/01/2021 Coldest this month 3.5° 20/01/2021 Hottest on record 40.4 30/01/2009 Coldest on record 1.1 09/01/2009 Hottest this year 36.3° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year 3.5° 20/01/2021 Long term average 27.6° Long term average 11.4° Average this month 26.3° Average this month 10.8° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.3° 2009 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 9.4° 2013 Doctors Flat rainfall history (37.2987°S, 147.7486°E, 275m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 22.4mm 27/01/2021 Total This Month 61.0mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 52.2mm 9.0 days Wettest January on record 155.8mm 2016 Driest on record 19.8mm 2007 -
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Year to Date
Doctors Flat Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 52.2mm 9.0 day(s) Total For 2021 61.0mm 7.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 82.0mm 10.0 day(s) Wettest Day 22.4mm Jan27 Lowest Temperature 3.5°C Jan20 Highest Temperature 36.3°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Doctors Flat Climatology
Doctors Flat Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.6 25.6 23.4 19.0 14.4 11.2 10.6 12.0 15.4 19.1 22.4 24.5 18.8 Mean Min (°C) 11.4 10.6 8.9 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 3.1 5.1 7.8 9.1 5.6 Mean Rain (mm) 52.2 57.5 52.6 37.6 37.3 63.3 54.6 49.5 49.3 59.0 70.6 61.7 645.3 Mean Rain Days 9.0 9.6 11.0 10.6 14.2 17.2 18.4 17.5 15.6 13.2 12.5 10.8 159.8