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Forecast

Dergholm (37.3703°S, 141.2151°E, 90m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Thunderstorms 12°
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:47am EST 6:13am EST 6:26pm EST 6:52pm EST
    NOW
    5.9° Feels Like: 2.8°
    Relative Humidity: 99%
    Dew: 5.8°
    Wind: NW 11km/h
    Gust: 17km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 2.0mm
    Pressure: 1013.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Dergholm
    Now
    5.3°c
    Feels Like:
    0.9°
    Wind:
    N 17km/h
    Gusts:
    20km/h
    Humidity:
    95%
    Thunderstorms
     
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Today in Dergholm
    Cloudy. The chance of frost near the Grampians early this morning. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, most likely from late this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm and possible hail this evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 13.
    Tomorrow
    Thunderstorms
    Min
    11°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow above 700 metres. Local hail, with isolated thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then W 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 2 with daytime temperatures reaching around 12.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. The chance of frost near the Grampians early this morning. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, most likely from late this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm and possible hail this evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 13.

    Forecast for Dergholm (37.3703°S, 141.2151°E, 90m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Thunderstorms Thunderstorms Showers Fog then sunny Mostly cloudy Late shower Possible shower
    Minimum
    Maximum 12° 11° 12° 14° 16° 17° 19°
    Chance of rain 90% 90% 80% 30% 20% 90% 70%
    Likely amount 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Slight Moderate Slight Moderate Moderate Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 16
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW NNW SW WSW WSW SW SSW SSW NE NE NE NNE N NW
    Relative humidity 89% 100% 100% 78% 89% 77% 91% 73% 82% 68% 78% 79% 99% 81%
    Dew point 7°C 9°C 7°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 9°C 9°C 13°C 13°C 15°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Dergholm Rain Forecast


    Dergholm 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    HIGH
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    HIGH
    30
    Oct 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep23

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Dergholm Rain Forecast


    Dergholm 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2020
    2021
    4
    8
    8
    9
    8
    7
    8
    4
    5
    7
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 9

    ENSO status: La Niña Alert IOD status: Negative SAM status: Negative trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to cool through August, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.5. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 9.8 in the same month, a significant increase compared to July, tipping over the La Niña threshold of +7. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific during the Austral spring, with a high chance of a weak La Niña forming. All eight international models continue to suggest further cooling during spring, with three of these indicating La Niña conditions in September. A further two exceeding the La Niña threshold in October, with six of the eight indicating La Niña by November. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 57:41 chance for La Niña:Neutral conditions by the end of the Australspring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase. Four of the six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of the Austral spring, with the remaining two indicating a neutral phase. Both of the models that indicate a neutral phase trend towards the negative side of neutral. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short term outlook favours above average rainfall over the interior over the remainder of the first month of spring, particularly eastern WA and the Kimberley, western NT and western SA Above average rainfall is also favoured, although not as pronounced, over inland NSW and QLD and parts of the NSW and VIC coastal area. Drier than average conditions are expected across western WA as well as parts of northern coastal QLD and parts of the southeast. The remainder of spring is then likely to be wetter than average for NSW, QLD, VIC, SA, TAS, the NT and eastern WA, whilst drier than averageconditions look to persist further west. There are then indications of increased rainfall over WA toward the end of spring and into early summer, with the eastern two thirds of the country remaining wetter than average.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Dergholm Rain Forecast


    Dergholm 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    HIGH
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    HIGH
    30
    Oct 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep23

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Dergholm Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Sep 19
    10.4 °C 22.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Sep 20
    13.4 °C 21.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Sep 21
    9.1 °C 17.3 °C
    2.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Sep 22
    9.4 °C 14.7 °C
    3.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Sep 23
    7.7 °C 12.6 °C
    7.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Dergholm minimum temp history (37.3703°S, 141.2151°E, 90m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 23.8° 07/09/2020 Coldest this month 0.7° 01/09/2020
    Hottest on record 26.6 28/09/2014 Coldest on record -1.7 09/09/2008
    Hottest this year 41.3° 30/01/2020 Coldest this year -3.1° 09/06/2020
    Long term average 16.4° Long term average 6.2°
    Average this month 17.3° Average this month 7.2°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.8° 2013 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 5.0° 2008
    Dergholm rainfall history (37.3703°S, 141.2151°E, 90m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 16.2mm 12/09/2020 Total This Month 56.2mm
    12.0 days
    Long Term Average 65.4mm 18.7 days Wettest September on record 123.0mm 2016
    Driest on record 29.2mm 2014
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Dergholm Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 518.1mm 138.2 day(s)
    Total For 2020 498.0mm 131.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 460.8mm 130.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 24.6mm Feb 1
    Lowest Temperature -3.1°C Jun 9
    Highest Temperature 41.3°C Jan30
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Dergholm Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.9 27.2 24.9 20.4 16.3 13.7 13.0 14.3 16.4 19.4 22.6 25.2 20.1
    Mean Min (°C) 12.2 12.6 11.1 8.9 7.2 5.1 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.9 9.0 10.1 8.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 39.3 31.9 35.5 46.3 66.2 67.5 84.8 81.2 65.4 46.4 35.9 42.9 642.2
    Mean Rain Days 6.5 6.4 9.5 13.0 19.2 20.0 22.6 22.3 18.7 13.7 11.2 10.7 163.9