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Forecast

Denicull Creek (37.3495°S, 142.8966°E, 279m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Rain developing
    rain developing
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:54am EST 7:21am EST 5:47pm EST 6:14pm EST
    NOW
    8.1° Feels Like: 4.5°
    Relative Humidity: 59%
    Dew: 0.6°
    Wind: S 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1015.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Denicull Creek
    Now
    6.9°c
    Feels Like:
    -0.6°
    Wind:
    SE 35km/h
    Gusts:
    41km/h
    Humidity:
    100%
    Rain developing
     
    Min
    Max
    Today in Denicull Creek
    Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely late this afternoon and evening. Winds E/SE 30 to 45 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 9 and 12.
    Tomorrow
    Showers easing
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Gusty E/SE winds 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 14.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely late this afternoon and evening. Winds E/SE 30 to 45 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 9 and 12.

    Forecast for Denicull Creek (37.3495°S, 142.8966°E, 279m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Rain developing Showers easing Possible shower Mostly sunny Showers increasing Showers Showers
    Minimum
    Maximum 12° 13° 15° 14° 13° 13°
    Chance of rain 90% 90% 20% 5% 70% 90% 90%
    Likely amount 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Low Low Low Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Moderate Slight Nil Slight Slight Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 17
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SE ESE ESE E SSE SSE SE NE NE NNE N NNW NNW NNW
    Relative humidity 74% 80% 92% 83% 90% 75% 84% 61% 79% 71% 96% 85% 93% 82%
    Dew point 1°C 4°C 7°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 5°C 8°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Denicull Creek Rain Forecast


    Denicull Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    7
    HIGH
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    HIGH
    17
    LOW
    18
    HIGH
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    HIGH
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Sep 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 6

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 29 August to 2 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 August to 16 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 25 August to 29 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 August to 15 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Denicull Creek Rain Forecast


    Denicull Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    5
    6
    6
    6
    7
    8
    6
    6
    5
    4
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Denicull Creek Rain Forecast


    Denicull Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    7
    HIGH
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    HIGH
    17
    LOW
    18
    HIGH
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    HIGH
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Sep 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 6

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 29 August to 2 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 August to 16 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 25 August to 29 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 August to 15 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Denicull Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Aug 03
    - 16.3 °C
    -
    Tuesday
    Aug 04
    1.9 °C 8.2 °C
    1.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 05
    1.5 °C 9.4 °C
    6.8 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 06
    1.4 °C -
    2.2 mm
    Friday
    Aug 07
    - -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Denicull Creek minimum temp history (37.3495°S, 142.8966°E, 279m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 16.6° 01/08/2020 Coldest this month 0.4° 01/08/2020
    Hottest on record 24.5 29/08/1982 Coldest on record -6.2 05/08/1997
    Hottest this year 40.5° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -4.0° 05/06/2020
    Long term average 13.0° Long term average 3.9°
    Average this month 12.6° Average this month 1.7°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 15.9° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 1.3° 1994
    Denicull Creek rainfall history (37.3495°S, 142.8966°E, 279m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 6.8mm 05/08/2020 Total This Month 10.2mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 68.1mm 18.1 days Wettest August on record 152.0mm 2010
    Driest on record 12.1mm 1982
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Denicull Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 384.6mm 99.6 day(s)
    Total For 2020 394.3mm 74.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 345.0mm 56.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 36.7mm Apr 4
    Lowest Temperature -4.0°C Jun 5
    Highest Temperature 40.5°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Denicull Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.0 27.1 24.0 19.6 15.5 12.4 11.8 13.0 15.2 18.3 21.6 24.7 19.1
    Mean Min (°C) 11.3 11.4 9.6 7.3 5.6 3.9 3.4 3.9 5.1 6.1 7.8 9.4 7.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 39.9 31.9 30.1 42.0 54.0 55.3 63.3 68.1 61.8 55.8 44.3 37.7 584.2
    Mean Rain Days 7.1 5.4 8.2 10.6 13.8 17.3 19.1 18.1 15.4 12.7 10.4 8.4 143.8