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Forecast

Daveys Bay (38.1924°S, 145.0937°E, 57m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 15° 37°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:00am EDT 6:30am EDT 8:36pm EDT 9:05pm EDT
    NOW
    16.6° Feels Like: 17.4°
    Relative Humidity: 90%
    Dew: 14.9°
    Wind: NNE 4km/h
    Gust: 4km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Daveys Bay
    Now
    17.2°c
    Feels Like:
    16.9°
    Wind:
    E 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    75%
    Sunny
     
    15°
    Min
    37°
    Max
    Today in Daveys Bay
    Patchy early morning fog over outer suburbs. Hot and sunny. Winds N/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending with afternoon bayside seabreezes to 20 km/h
    Tomorrow
    Thunderstorms clearing
    18°
    Min
    38°
    Max
    Hot and becoming humid. Mostly sunny morning. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h shifting NW 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon then tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Daveys Bay

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Patchy early morning fog over outer suburbs. Hot and sunny. Winds N/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending with afternoon bayside seabreezes to 20 km/h

    Forecast for Daveys Bay (38.1924°S, 145.0937°E, 57m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Sunny Thunderstorms clearing Possible thunderstorm Clearing shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 15° 18° 19° 13° 12° 11° 13°
    Maximum 37° 38° 30° 22° 19° 22° 25°
    Chance of rain 5% 50% 90% 40% 60% 5% 10%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N N NE N N SW W W W SW SSE S SSE S
    Relative humidity 55% 31% 53% 35% 74% 85% 74% 60% 70% 62% 63% 54% 70% 62%
    Dew point 13°C 16°C 15°C 19°C 22°C 22°C 11°C 14°C 11°C 11°C 8°C 12°C 13°C 16°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Daveys Bay Rain Forecast


    Daveys Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    HIGH
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Daveys Bay Rain Forecast


    Daveys Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    4
    7
    7
    7
    5
    6
    5
    8
    5
    3
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Daveys Bay Rain Forecast


    Daveys Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    HIGH
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Daveys Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Jan 24
    - 23.1 °C
    -
    Saturday
    Jan 25
    9.9 °C -
    2.8 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 26
    - -
    -
    Monday
    Jan 27
    - -
    -
    Tuesday
    Jan 28
    - -
    -
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Daveys Bay minimum temp history (38.1924°S, 145.0937°E, 57m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 30.0° 22/01/2020 Coldest this month 10.1° 22/01/2020
    Hottest on record 44.0 29/01/2009 Coldest on record 5.5 24/01/2000
    Hottest this year 30.0° 22/01/2020 Coldest this year 10.1° 22/01/2020
    Long term average 25.4° Long term average 13.6°
    Average this month 27.4° Average this month 12.0°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.6° 2009 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 11.7° 2004
    Daveys Bay rainfall history (38.1924°S, 145.0937°E, 57m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 34.2mm 23/01/2020 Total This Month 40.6mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 52.5mm 10.1 days Wettest January on record 130.4mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Daveys Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 52.5mm 10.1 day(s)
    Total For 2020 40.6mm 2.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 4.2mm 5.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 34.2mm Jan23
    Lowest Temperature 10.1°C Jan22
    Highest Temperature 30.0°C Jan22
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Daveys Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.4 25.7 23.5 19.9 16.4 13.9 13.4 14.5 16.5 19.0 21.1 23.5 19.4
    Mean Min (°C) 13.6 14.0 12.5 10.3 8.5 6.7 6.1 6.5 7.8 8.8 10.4 11.7 9.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 52.5 53.4 44.3 71.0 67.6 80.8 72.9 81.9 86.8 77.9 74.6 67.5 829.5
    Mean Rain Days 10.1 8.4 11.0 14.1 18.4 19.3 19.4 19.2 17.6 15.4 13.0 11.2 172.5