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Forecast

Bogong (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Late shower 15° 26°
    late shower
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 20-40mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:48am EDT 7:14am EDT 7:24pm EDT 7:49pm EDT
    NOW
    27.2° Feels Like: 23.4°
    Relative Humidity: 38%
    Dew: 11.7°
    Wind: N 22km/h
    Gust: 32km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1013.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Bogong
    Now
    20.5°c
    Feels Like:
    16.6°
    Wind:
    NW 22km/h
    Gusts:
    32km/h
    Humidity:
    56%
    Late shower
     
    15°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Today in Bogong
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h turning W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    13°
    Min
    18°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the E, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the N in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h becoming SW 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending S in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 22.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Bogong

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h turning W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

    Forecast for Bogong (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Late shower Possible shower Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 15° 13° 10° 11°
    Maximum 26° 18° 22° 22° 22° 23° 23°
    Chance of rain 90% 40% 5% 5% 30% 5% 10%
    Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate High High High Moderate High High
    Fire Danger Rating High High Moderate Moderate No Rating - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 6
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE N W SSW SSE NNW WNW NW SE WNW WNW WNW NNW NW
    Relative humidity 38% 38% 59% 41% 26% 32% 39% 42% 46% 42% 43% 36% 35% 36%
    Dew point 3°C 9°C 6°C 3°C -9°C 3°C -2°C 7°C 1°C 7°C 0°C 6°C -2°C 6°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Bogong Rain Forecast


    Bogong 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Bogong Rain Forecast


    Bogong 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2024
    2025
    5
    5
    5
    7
    5
    4
    6
    4
    6
    5
    7
    9
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Mar 5

    ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Bogong Rain Forecast


    Bogong 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Bogong Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Mar 15
    10.7 °C 21.0 °C
    3.6 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 16
    5.4 °C 26.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 17
    5.5 °C 26.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Mar 18
    6.9 °C 27.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Mar 19
    10.8 °C 28.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Bogong minimum temp history (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.8° 10/03/2024 Coldest this month 3.1° 04/03/2024
    Hottest on record 35.7 08/03/2016 Coldest on record 0.3 02/03/2011
    Hottest this year 34.8° 10/03/2024 Coldest this year 3.1° 04/03/2024
    Long term average 23.2° Long term average 9.0°
    Average this month 27.4° Average this month 10.2°
    Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.8° 2017 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 7.0° 2015
    Bogong rainfall history (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 5.4mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 9.4mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 55.9mm 11.7 days Wettest March on record 175.8mm 2012
    Driest on record 4.4mm 2015
  15. Year to Date

    Bogong Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 174.4mm 30.9 day(s)
    Total For 2024 154.8mm 23.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2023 125.4mm 29.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 40.2mm Feb 6
    Lowest Temperature 3.1°C Mar 4
    Highest Temperature 34.8°C Mar10
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Bogong Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.2 25.4 23.2 18.9 14.4 11.1 10.7 12.2 15.5 18.9 22.0 24.2 18.6
    Mean Min (°C) 11.5 10.5 9.0 5.6 2.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.7 9.2 5.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 64.4 54.1 55.9 37.7 41.1 62.7 50.5 51.1 54.1 63.1 79.0 63.9 678.7
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 9.4 11.7 10.9 14.3 17.5 18.1 17.8 15.8 13.6 13.0 11.3 163.1