Forecast
Bogong (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY15° 26° late shower Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:48am EDT 7:14am EDT 7:24pm EDT 7:49pm EDT NOW27.2° Feels Like: 23.4° Relative Humidity: 38% Dew: 11.7° Wind: N 22km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.0hPa -
Today Weather
BogongNow20.5°cFeels Like:16.6°Wind:NW 22km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:56%15°Min26°MaxToday in BogongPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h turning W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.Tomorrow13°Min18°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the E, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the N in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h becoming SW 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending S in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 22. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Bogong
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h turning W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.
Forecast for Bogong (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 15° 13° 5° 9° 9° 10° 11° Maximum 26° 18° 22° 22° 22° 23° 23° Chance of rain 90% 40% 5% 5% 30% 5% 10% Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate High High High Moderate High High Fire Danger Rating High High Moderate Moderate No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 6
(km/h)4
(km/h)7
(km/h)8
(km/h)5
(km/h)3
(km/h)2
(km/h)5
(km/h)5
(km/h)3
(km/h)2
(km/h)6
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)Wind direction NNE N W SSW SSE NNW WNW NW SE WNW WNW WNW NNW NW Relative humidity 38% 38% 59% 41% 26% 32% 39% 42% 46% 42% 43% 36% 35% 36% Dew point 3°C 9°C 6°C 3°C -9°C 3°C -2°C 7°C 1°C 7°C 0°C 6°C -2°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bogong Rain Forecast
Bogong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bogong Rain Forecast
Bogong 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025555754646579105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bogong Rain Forecast
Bogong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Bogong Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1510.7 °C 21.0 °C 3.6 mmSaturday
Mar 165.4 °C 26.2 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 175.5 °C 26.3 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 186.9 °C 27.8 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1910.8 °C 28.1 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bogong minimum temp history (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.8° 10/03/2024 Coldest this month 3.1° 04/03/2024 Hottest on record 35.7 08/03/2016 Coldest on record 0.3 02/03/2011 Hottest this year 34.8° 10/03/2024 Coldest this year 3.1° 04/03/2024 Long term average 23.2° Long term average 9.0° Average this month 27.4° Average this month 10.2° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.8° 2017 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 7.0° 2015 Bogong rainfall history (36.8052°S, 147.225°E, 758m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 5.4mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 9.4mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 55.9mm 11.7 days Wettest March on record 175.8mm 2012 Driest on record 4.4mm 2015 -
Year to Date
Bogong Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 174.4mm 30.9 day(s) Total For 2024 154.8mm 23.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 125.4mm 29.0 day(s) Wettest Day 40.2mm Feb 6 Lowest Temperature 3.1°C Mar 4 Highest Temperature 34.8°C Mar10 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bogong Climatology
Bogong Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.2 25.4 23.2 18.9 14.4 11.1 10.7 12.2 15.5 18.9 22.0 24.2 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 11.5 10.5 9.0 5.6 2.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.7 9.2 5.6 Mean Rain (mm) 64.4 54.1 55.9 37.7 41.1 62.7 50.5 51.1 54.1 63.1 79.0 63.9 678.7 Mean Rain Days 9.8 9.4 11.7 10.9 14.3 17.5 18.1 17.8 15.8 13.6 13.0 11.3 163.1