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Forecast

Blackburn South (37.8317°S, 145.1467°E, 87m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers 14°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:05am EDT 6:32am EDT 7:38pm EDT 8:05pm EDT
    NOW
    11.3° Feels Like: 8.3°
    Relative Humidity: 71%
    Dew: 6.2°
    Wind: WNW 11km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 1.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Blackburn South
    Now
    11.7°c
    Feels Like:
    6.7°
    Wind:
    WNW 20km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    65%
    Showers
     
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Today in Blackburn South
    Mostly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon with small hail. Winds W/NW 25 to 40 km/h turning SW 30 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon then tending W/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Mostly sunny day. Medium chance of showers in the evening. Light winds becoming N/NW 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then tending W/NW 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon with small hail. Winds W/NW 25 to 40 km/h turning SW 30 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon then tending W/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Forecast for Blackburn South (37.8317°S, 145.1467°E, 87m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Showers Late shower Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 14° 21° 15° 17° 18° 22° 27°
    Chance of rain 80% 70% 80% 30% 10% 5% 5%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High High High High Very High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 16
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NW W N NNW WNW W W WSW W SW ENE WSW N NW
    Relative humidity 70% 68% 66% 38% 63% 54% 78% 60% 81% 56% 75% 41% 61% 33%
    Dew point 4°C 7°C 5°C 6°C 3°C 6°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Blackburn South Rain Forecast


    Blackburn South 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    HIGH
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Blackburn South Rain Forecast


    Blackburn South 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    3
    4
    6
    5
    7
    5
    5
    3
    7
    4
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Blackburn South Rain Forecast


    Blackburn South 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    HIGH
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Blackburn South Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    5.2 °C 21.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 14
    13.7 °C 25.8 °C
    0.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    12.0 °C 18.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    11.5 °C 18 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    7 °C -
    16.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Blackburn South minimum temp history (37.8317°S, 145.1467°E, 87m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 29.2° 03/10/2019 Coldest this month 1.1° 01/10/2019
    Hottest on record 35.0 06/10/2015 Coldest on record 0.1 08/10/1966
    Hottest this year 43.5° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.0° 31/07/2019
    Long term average 19.3° Long term average 8.9°
    Average this month 19.5° Average this month 8.2°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.7° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 7.0° 2006
    Blackburn South rainfall history (37.8317°S, 145.1467°E, 87m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 16.0mm 17/10/2019 Total This Month 36.8mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 84.5mm 15.5 days Wettest October on record 171.2mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Blackburn South Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 705.7mm 145.7 day(s)
    Total For 2019 573.6mm 127.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 385.2mm 122.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 21.2mm Sep16
    Lowest Temperature 0.0°C Jul31
    Highest Temperature 43.5°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Blackburn South Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.3 26.8 24.3 20.2 16.5 13.7 13.1 14.4 16.6 19.3 21.7 24.2 19.7
    Mean Min (°C) 13.6 14.1 12.7 10.2 8.4 6.5 6.0 6.5 7.8 8.9 10.6 12.1 9.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 52.4 53.5 52.8 67.4 87.4 70.3 73.2 79.8 84.4 84.5 81.0 73.5 860.4
    Mean Rain Days 8.7 7.8 10.3 13.0 17.3 18.5 19.7 18.6 16.3 15.5 13.6 11.1 166.0