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Forecast

Black Lead (37.6525°S, 143.8825°E, 421m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 21°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:04am EDT 6:33am EDT 8:42pm EDT 9:11pm EDT
    NOW
    19.0° Feels Like: 11.3°
    Relative Humidity: 48%
    Dew: 7.8°
    Wind: SE 37km/h
    Gust: 39km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1015.3hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Black Lead
    Now
    17.8°c
    Feels Like:
    12.9°
    Wind:
    E 20km/h
    Gusts:
    24km/h
    Humidity:
    46%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Black Lead
    Partly cloudy. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures 20 to 25.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    12°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Mostly sunny morning. Medium chance of showers at night. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to high 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Winds SE 25 to 40 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures 20 to 25.

    Forecast for Black Lead (37.6525°S, 143.8825°E, 421m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Mostly sunny Late shower Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 12° 15° 15° 12° 13° 11°
    Maximum 21° 26° 23° 24° 23° 28° 20°
    Chance of rain 5% 90% 80% 30% 10% 50% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm 5-10mm 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 50
    (km/h)
    37
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SSE SSE ESE ENE NE NE WSW SW S SSE ESE W SW SSW
    Relative humidity 66% 45% 74% 60% 92% 91% 92% 65% 85% 55% 83% 49% 87% 60%
    Dew point 6°C 7°C 14°C 16°C 15°C 18°C 15°C 16°C 13°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 12°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Black Lead Rain Forecast


    Black Lead 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    27
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    31
    Feb 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan27

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Black Lead Rain Forecast


    Black Lead 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2021
    10
    8
    8
    5
    5
    7
    7
    3
    5
    6
    8
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 7

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Black Lead Rain Forecast


    Black Lead 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    27
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    31
    Feb 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan27

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Black Lead Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jan 23
    11.1 °C 32.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 24
    13.3 °C 35.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jan 25
    21.0 °C 36.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 26
    15.5 °C 21.1 °C
    8.4 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 27
    8.2 °C 19.4 °C
    0.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Black Lead minimum temp history (37.6525°S, 143.8825°E, 421m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 36.5° 25/01/2021 Coldest this month 4.6° 13/01/2021
    Hottest on record 42.0 25/01/2003 Coldest on record 0.7 03/01/2009
    Hottest this year 36.5° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 4.6° 13/01/2021
    Long term average 25.6° Long term average 11.3°
    Average this month 25.3° Average this month 11.4°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.1° 1981 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 7.3° 1987
    Black Lead rainfall history (37.6525°S, 143.8825°E, 421m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 40.6mm 03/01/2021 Total This Month 59.8mm
    10.0 days
    Long Term Average 39.4mm 7.6 days Wettest January on record 206.0mm 2011
    Driest on record 0.8mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Black Lead Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 39.4mm 7.6 day(s)
    Total For 2021 59.8mm 10.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 70.0mm 11.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 40.6mm Jan 3
    Lowest Temperature 4.6°C Jan13
    Highest Temperature 36.5°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Black Lead Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.6 25.4 22.6 18.2 13.9 11.1 10.3 11.6 13.8 16.9 19.9 22.9 17.7
    Mean Min (°C) 11.3 11.6 10.1 7.5 5.6 3.8 3.0 3.4 4.6 6.2 8.0 9.5 7.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 39.4 43.4 41.8 51.1 64.5 62.3 66.2 73.5 71.1 65.8 55.6 50.0 684.0
    Mean Rain Days 7.6 7.2 9.4 12.6 16.7 18.3 20.2 19.7 16.8 15.4 12.7 10.8 167.3